华南预防医学 ›› 2014, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 301-305.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2014.0301

• 环境与健康 •    下一篇

深圳市大气PM10与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的时间序列分析

廖玉学,彭朝琼,余淑苑,慈捷元,刘宁,李斌,严宙宁,蓝涛,吴永胜   

  1. 深圳市疾病预防控制中心,广东 深圳 518055
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-24 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-11
  • 作者简介:廖玉学(1980—),男,硕士研究生,主治医师,主要从事环境流行病学研究

Time series study of relationship between ambient PM10 and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Shenzhen

LIAO Yu-xue, PENG Zhao-qiong, YU Shu-yuan, CI Jie-yuan, LIU Ning, LI Bin, YAN Zhou-ning, LAN Tao, WU Yong-sheng   

  1. Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China
  • Received:2014-02-24 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-11

摘要: 目的 探讨大气可吸入颗粒污染物(PM10)对医院呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响。方法 2012年1月1日至12月31日疾病资料来源于深圳市2家三级甲等综合性医院逐日门诊病例资料,空气污染物资料来自深圳市环境监测站,气象资料来自气象局。采用广义相加Poisson回归模型的时间序列分析,在控制长期趋势、星期几效应和气象等影响因素后,对大气PM10日均浓度与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系和滞后效应进行分析。结果 深圳市2012年全年日均大气PM10浓度为0.052 mg/m3,符合国家二级标准,2家医院全年呼吸系统门诊量为562 174人次,平均1 535.99人次/d。广义相加模型分析结果发现PM10日均浓度与呼吸系统疾病门诊量存在正相关关系。滞后6 d 时PM10日均浓度对呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响最强[相对危险度(RR)为1.004 7,95% CI:1.003 6~1.005 8]。引入CO、O3、NO2、SO2进行多污染物模型分析发现,多污染物模型的RR值相对单污染物模型有升有降(均P<0.05),其中以双污染物模型PM10+SO2和三污染物模型PM10+CO+SO2中的PM10的RR值最高,分别为1.005 9、1.006 7。结论 深圳市大气PM10污染与医院呼吸系统疾病日门诊量呈正相关关系,且存在滞后效应。

Abstract: Objective To quantitatively assess the impact of ambient PM10 on hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. Methods Daily hospital outpatient visit data in 2012 were collected from two hospitals in Shenzhen. Daily meteorological and air pollution data in the same duration were obtained from Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and Shenzhen Environmental Protection Bureau, respectively. A time-series analysis using a generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to assess the association between ambient PM10 concentration and hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases after adjustment for long-term trend, day-of-week, meteorological factors and other air pollutants.Result The average PM10 concentration in Shenzhen in 2012 was 0.052 mg/m3, meeting the national second-level standard. The total outpatient visits of the two involved hospitals were 562 174 with an average of 1 535.99 persons per day. GAM models indicated a positive association between ambient PM10 concentration and hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. In the single-pollutant models, the effect of PM10 was largest on lag 6 days(RR=1.004 7, 95%CI:1.003 6~1.005 8). In multi-pollutant models adjustment for CO, O3, NO2 and SO2, the RRs for the increment of PM10 concentration varied, and the RRs in the models adjustment for SO2 (RR=1.005 9) and models adjustment for CO and SO2 (RR=1.006 7) were the largest two. Conclusion The ambient PM10 concentration was positively associated with hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Shenzhen, and a lag structure was found in these associations.

中图分类号: 

  • R56