2014—2021年佛山市禅城区四类慢性病早死概率及达标分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.0137

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the mortality and the trends of probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in Chancheng District, Foshan City during 2014-2021, and to predict the targets achievement of premature death probabilities for the years 2025 and 2030. Methods The death cases and population data of registered residents in Chancheng District during 2014-2021 were collected. The constituent ratio, crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, and the probability of premature mortality were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and the predicted value of probability of premature mortality. Results During 2014-2021, the standardized mortality rate caused by chronic diseases in total population, males, and females showed decreasing trends, with AAPCs of -3.01%, -2.52%, and -3.66%, respectively (all P<0.01). The crude mortality rates and standardized mortality rates of diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases all showed decreasing trends (all P<0.01). The probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases in total population decreased from 11.38% in 2014 to 9.93% in 2021, with the AAPC of -2.48% (P<0.05). The probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases decreased from 7.51% to 6.20% for females, with the AAPC of -3.65% (P<0.05), while without statistically significant for males (P>0.05). The predicted probability of premature mortality in Chancheng District, Foshan City in 2025 and 2030 were 9.33% and 8.23%, respectively, which were lower than the target premature death probabilities of 9.88% and 8.65% in 2025 and 2030 in the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for Chronic Disease Control and Prevention in China (2017-2025) " and "Healthy China 2030" Planning Outline, respectively. Conclusions The probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases in Chancheng District showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2021. We should continue to strengthen the control and prevention of chronic diseases, and strive to achieve a lower probability of premature mortality than the planned targets for 2025 and 2030.

Key words: Four chronic diseases, Death level, Probability of premature mortality, Achieve the targets

CLC Number:

R195.4

HUANG Minchan, CHEN Fengling, HUANG Jinhang, HE Jinsen, HUANG Yaqing. Analysis of the probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in Chancheng District, Foshan City (2014-2021) and forecasting target achievement[J].South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025, 51(2): 137-142.

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Analysis of the probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in Chancheng District, Foshan City (2014-2021) and forecasting target achievement

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