华南预防医学 ›› 2014, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 327-332.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2014.0327

• 环境与健康 • 上一篇    下一篇

济南市热浪对居民非意外死亡的影响研究

张霞1,2,周脉耕3,黄季夏4,林华亮5,刘起勇   

  1. 1.中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所 传染病预防控制国家重点实验室,北京100073;2.阿坝州疾病预防控制中心;3.中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心;4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境系统国家重点实验室;5.广东省疾病预防控制中心 广东省公共卫生研究院
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-14 出版日期:2014-08-20 发布日期:2014-08-11
  • 通讯作者: 刘起勇 E-mail:liuqiyong@icdc.cn
  • 作者简介:张霞(1979—),女,在职硕士研究生,主管医师,从事气候变化对人类健康影响研究
  • 基金资助:
    国家重大科学研究计划 (973项目)(课题编号:2012CB955504)

Impact of heat wave on non-accidental mortality of local residents in Jinan

ZHANG Xia1,2, ZHOU Mai-geng3, HUANG Ji-xia4, LIN Hua-liang5, LIU Qi-yong1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100073, China; 2. A Ba Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention; 3. National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; 4. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; 5. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2014-02-14 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-11

摘要: 目的 研究评估济南市热浪对居民非意外死亡的影响。方法 收集济南市2009、2010和2012年6—8月的死亡资料,以及同期的气象指标和大气污染指数,采用时间分层病例交叉研究,分析不同滞后天数热浪对该市居民非意外死亡及主要死因别循环系统疾病及其亚类急性心肌梗死、脑血管疾病,呼吸系统疾病,肿瘤死亡的影响。结果 观察天数共计276 d,期间非意外死亡共16 427例;其中热浪期34 d,非意外死亡2 306例;非热浪期242 d,非意外死亡14 121例。济南市热浪对本地居民非意外死亡,循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病,脑血管疾病、急性心肌梗死死亡有显著影响,且存在滞后效应,在滞后2,2、1,2、4 d时效应最大,对肿瘤死亡未发现显著影响。在控制了节假日效应、平均气压、平均相对湿度和污染指数后,热浪与居民非意外死亡,循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病,脑血管疾病、急性心肌梗死死亡的影响因素分析OR值分别为1.44,1.70、1.87,1.56、1.60。结论 该研究提示热浪是济南居民健康的危险因素。热浪对居民呼吸系统疾病的死亡影响最大,其次是循环系统疾病死亡;相关部门应针对济南市当地的气候特点,采取相应的有效公共卫生预防措施,减少热浪对当地居民健康的危害。

Abstract: Objective To assess the impact of heat wave on non-accidental mortality in Jinan. Methods Mortality data, meteorological data and air pollution index data were collected during the period from June to August of 2009, 2010, and 2012 in Jinan. A time-stratified case-crossover study was used to assess the effects of heat wave on non-accidental death and deaths due to the main cause-specific circulatory diseases and their subtypes of acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory disease, and tumors of residents on different lag days in the city. Results A total of 16 427 non-accidental deaths were recorded during the 276 study days, of which 14 121 deaths were in 242 non-heat wave days and 2 306 deaths were in 34 heat wave days. Significant impacts of heat wave on non-accidental mortality, mortalities of circulatory diseases ,respiratory diseases, cerebrovascular disease, and acute myocardial infarction were observed among the local residents and significant delayed effects were observed on day 2, day 2, day 1, day 2 and day 4 for non-accidental deaths and other deaths, respectively. No significant effect was found for mortality from tumors. After controlling for the holidays, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and average pollution index, the factor analysis OR values of heat wave and non-accidental mortality, mortality of circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, cerebrovascular disease, and acute myocardial infarction were 1.44,1.70,1.87,1.56 and 1.60. Conclusion This study suggests that heat wave may be a risk factor for the health of residents in Jinan. Heat wave had large impact on respiratory disease, followed by circulatory diseases. Relevant authorities should take corresponding measures to reduce health hazard in accordance with meteorological characteristics in Jinan.

中图分类号: 

  • R122.21