华南预防医学 ›› 2017, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 401-405.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2017.0401

• 论著 •    下一篇

广东省2006―2015年恙虫病时空聚集性分析

张萌1,杨新金2,3,张克春4,叶新2,5,谢润生6,彭志强1   

  1. 1.广东省疾病预防控制中心,广东 广州 511430;2.广东省现场流行病学培训项目;3.东莞市疾病预防控制中心;4.深圳市龙华新区疾病预防控制中心;5.广州市天河区疾病预防控制中心;6.广东省公共卫生研究院
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-10 修回日期:2017-04-10 出版日期:2017-10-30 发布日期:2017-11-15
  • 通讯作者: 彭志强 E-mail:674699776@qq.com
  • 作者简介:张萌(1983―),男,大学本科,主管医师,主要从事传染病预防控制工作

Temporal-spatial clustering analysis of scrub typhus in Guangdong Province, 2006-2015

ZHANG Meng, YANG Xin-jin , ZHANG Ke-chun, et al   

  1. 1. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;2. Guangdong Provincial Field Epidemiology Training Program; 3. Dongguan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention; 4. Longhua Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shenzhen ;5. Tianhe Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou ; 6. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health
  • Received:2017-04-10 Revised:2017-04-10 Online:2017-10-30 Published:2017-11-15

摘要: 目的分析广东省 2006―2015年恙虫病流行病学特征并探索其时空分布特征,为制定有效的防治策略和控制措施提供科学依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集广东省2006―2015年恙虫病疫情资料,利用地理信息系统技术,采用空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计量联合分析的方法对恙虫病发病情况进行时空聚集性分析。结果2006―2015年广东省累计报告恙虫病病例20 178例,死亡24例,年均报告发病率为2.02/10万,发病率呈逐年升高趋势(P<0.01)。发病高峰呈双峰分布,6―7月达到最高峰,9―10月形成次高峰。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,恙虫病在县区级尺度上呈空间正相关(Moran's I指数为0.256,P<0.01)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,德庆县、怀集县、阳山县、广宁县等21个县(区)为“热点”区域(GiZ值为1.69~5.77,均P<0.01),形成恙虫病的高发区域,全省仅丰顺县为“冷点”区域(GiZ值为-1.72,P>0.05),为恙虫病的低发区域。时空聚集性分析结果显示,2006―2015年广东省恙虫病流行分4个聚类区,其中1类聚类区(LLR=8 640.82,RR=7.10,P<0.01)是以清远市、连州市为中心点、半径为243.31 km的区域,包含广宁县、云安区、怀集县等46个县(区),波及广东省35.66%(46/129)的县(区)。结论2006―2015年广东省恙虫病发病率存在逐年升高趋势,且存在显著的时空聚集性,应在高发地区、高发季节对重点人群采取有效的防控措施,降低恙虫病发病水平。

Abstract: ObjectiveTo analyze epidemiological features of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2015 in Guangdong Province and explore characteristics of its spatial and temporal distributions, so as to provide scientific basis for developing effective strategies and measures for control of scrub typhus.MethodsEpidemic data of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2015 in Guangdong Province were collected from the China information System for Disease Prevention and Control. The data of incidences of scrub typhus were analyzed by using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scan statistics, and geographical information system.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2015, a total of 20 178 cases of scrub typhus were reported in Guangdong Province, including 24 deaths. The annual incidence was 2.02/100,000, with an increasing trend annually (P<0.01). Two peaks in incidence were observed, the first as the highest one during June to July and the second during September to October. The spatial positive correlation at county (district) level was found and showed significant spatial clustering (Moran's I index =0.256, P<0.01). Local spatial association analysis indicated that 21 counties, including Deqing, Huaiji, Yangshan, and Guangning, were hotspots (GiZ =1.69-5.77, both P<0.01), forming high incidence areas of scrub typhus. Whereas with the low incidence, Fengshun county was the only cold spot area of scrub typhus in Guangdong Province (GiZ=-1.72, P>0.05). Four clustering areas were found by time-space scanning during 2006 to 2015, and 46 counties (districts) were classified as Class 1 clustering area (LLR=8 640.82, RR=7.10, P<0.01), taking the cities of Qingyuan and Lianzhou as the center, with a radius of 243.31 km, including 46 counties (districts) of Guangning, Yunan, and Huaiji, accounting for 35.66% (46/129) of all counties (districts) in Guangdong Province.ConclusionThe incidence of scrub typhus increased yearly from 2016 to 2015 in Guangdong Province, with a significant feature of spatiotemporal clustering. Effective measures should be taken for target population to decrease the incidence of scrub typhus in the high-risk areas during the high occurrence seasons.

中图分类号: 

  • R513.2