华南预防医学 ›› 2013, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 1-5.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2013.01.001

• 论著 •    下一篇

广东省1950—2011年猩红热发病趋势变化及流行特征分析

杨芬, 钟豪杰, 洪腾, 张锦清, 林文青   

  1. 广东省疾病预防控制中心,广东 广州 511430
  • 收稿日期:2012-10-11 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-12-13
  • 作者简介:杨芬(1974—),女,硕士,副主任医师,主要研究方向为传染病流行病学

Incidence trendency and epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Guangdong Province, 1950-2011

YANG Fen,ZHONG Hao-jie, HONG Teng, ZHANG Jin-qing, LIN Wen-qing   

  1. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
  • Received:2012-10-11 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-12-13

摘要: 目的 对广东省1950—2011年猩红热发病的趋势变化及流行特征进行分析,为开展防控工作提供依据。方法 通过广东省疾病监测信息报告管理系统收集广东省1950—2011年猩红热的发病和流行资料,对收集到的资料进行描述性流行病学分析。结果 1950—2011年广东省共报告猩红热病例15 581例,死亡1例(为1950年报告),年发病率介于0~49.00/10万之间;流行可分为散发期(1950—1973年,年平均发病率0.12/10万)、暴发流行期(1974—1987年,年平均发病率15.16/10万)、低水平流行期(1988—2003年,年平均发病率1.68/10万)和流行反弹期(2004—2011年,年平均发病率4.82/10万)。发病呈现2个季节性高峰,第1个高峰(秋季高峰)发生在11—1月(发病构成比35.4%);第2个高峰(春季高峰)略低于第1个高峰,发生在4—6月(发病构成比28.9%),2个高峰分别与学校秋季学期及春季学期时间基本一致。共发生3次大规模的猩红热重点地区暴发疫情,第1次发生在1974年汕头市,共1 712例,年发病率为484.02/10万,<15岁学生儿童发病占90.5%;1984年该地区再次发生猩红热暴发,共发病360例,年发病率为80.62/10万,<15岁学生儿童占91.4%;1987年阳江县闸坡镇发生猩红热暴发流行,共发生病例690例,5~9岁组学生儿童发病人数最多,占14.6%。2004—2011年广东省流行情况有所反弹,其中2011年发病数居前4位的地市分别为深圳市(758例)、广州市(265例)、佛山市(117例)和东莞市(109例),4个地市2011年发病数均比2004—2010年平均发病数有所上升,上升幅度最大的为深圳市(上升422.7%);2011年托幼儿童发病构成比相对于2004—2010年有所上升,学生发病构成比则有所下降(P<0.01)。结论 1950—2011年广东省猩红热的发病流行周期波动模式为高发—低发相间,每一周期持续时间约15~20年;2004年以来发病反弹,特别是2011年上升明显,提示广东省今后几年可能会继续处于猩红热高流行期;托幼机构和小学等集体单位将是今后防控工作的重点。

Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence trends and epidemic characteristics of scarlet fever in Guangdong Province during 1950-2011 and provide evidence for preventing and controlling scarlet fever. Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was performed on epidemiological data of scarlet fever during 1950-2011 obtained from Guangdong Diseases Reporting Information System. Results A total of 15 581 cases were reported to the Guangdong Notifiable Disease Database during 1950-2011 with the annual incidence ranging between 0 to 49.00/100 000. There are four epidemic stages: Distributed Period (1950-1973, the average annual incidence was 0.12/100 000), Outbreak Period (1974-1987, the average annual incidence was 15.16/100 000), Low-level Epidemic Period(1988-2003, the average annual incidence was 1.68/100 000) and Epidemic Rebound Period (2004-2011, the average annual incidence was 4.82/100 000). The incidence of scarlet fever in Guangdong appeared two seasonal peaks: the first peak (autumn peak) increased since September and reached the summit between November to January (the constituent ratio is 35.4%); the second peak (spring peak) is lower than the first peak which increased since March and reached the summit between April to June (the constituent ratio is 28.9%). The two peaks were almost in accordance with the school fall semester and spring semester, respectively. A total of 3 large outbreaks were reported in key areas of Guangdong. The first outbreak occurred in Shantou City in 1974 when 1 712 cases were reported (the incidence was 484.02/100 000) and children under 15 years of age accounted for 90.5% of all cases. Ten years later, the second outbreak occurred in the same city in 1984 when 360 cases were reported (the incidence was 80.62/100 000) and children under 15 years of age accounted for 91.4% of all cases. The third outbreak occurred in Zapo Town of Yangjiang County in 1987 when 690 cases were reported,children between 5 to 9 years old accounted for 14.6% of all cases.The incidence of scarlet fever in Guangdong rebounded in 2004-2011 and the top four cities for 2011 were Shenzhen (758 cases), Guangzhou (265 cases), Foshan (117 cases) and Dongguan (109 cases). The reported cases of these four cities in 2011 were higher than the average annual cases in 2004-2010 respectively and the biggest surge was in Shenzhen (increased by 422.7%). Compared with 2004-2010, the constituent ratio for preschoolers increased in 2011, but that for students declined (P<0.01). Conclusion The fluctuation pattern of the epidemic for scarlet fever in Guangdong Province during 1950 to 2011 is that high incidence period alternated with low incidence one. Each period lasted about 15 to 20 years. The epidemic rebounded since 2004 and increased obviously especially in 2011 which showed that it would remain the epidemic period for the next several years in the province. Childcare facilities and schools should be the focus of prevention and control for scarlet fever in the future.

中图分类号: 

  • R515.1