Abstract: Objective To investigate the prevalence of populations at high risk for chronic diseases in Huangpu District,Guangzhou,and to investigate the impact of age and duration of physical activity on this high-risk population. Methods Residents aged≥18 years were screened through outpatient clinics,free clinics,physical examinations,and vaccination clinics across 17 primary healthcare institutions in Huangpu District. Chi-square tests and a multivariate logistic regression model were employed to analyze the impact of age and physical activity duration on high-risk populations for chronic diseases. Multiplicative interaction analysis was utilized to assess the combined effect of age and physical activity duration on this demographic. Results A total of 4 549 participants were included,with a mean age of （41.96±12.98） years;1 444 （31.74%） were male. Among these,1 471 individuals were identified as being at high risk for chronic diseases,yielding a detection rate of 32.24%. After adjusting for covariates,logistic regression analysis indicated that individuals aged ≥45 years（OR=1.67,95% CI：1.42-1.97） or engaging in <150 minutes/week of physical activity （OR=1.65,95% CI：1.43-1.91） exhibited an increased risk profile for chronic diseases （both P<0.01）. Multiplicative interaction analysis revealed a synergistic effect between age ≥45 years and physical activity duration <150 minutes/week on the high-risk status for chronic diseases （OR=3.05,95% CI：2.41 - 3.87）. Age≥45 years and physical activity duration <150 minutes/week were identified as risk factors for individuals presenting with one or≥2 risk factors for chronic diseases. Conclusions Age≥45 years and physical activity duration <150 minutes/week are significant risk factors for populations at high risk of chronic diseases,and these two factors demonstrate a multiplicative interaction effect on the risk of developing chronic diseases within this population.

Key words: High-risk population for chronic diseases, Age, Physical activity duration, Interaction effect