S China J Prev Med ›› 2014, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 306-311.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2014.0306

• Environment and Health • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Time series study of relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence

FU Chuan-xi, YANG Qiong-ying, YANG Zhi-cong, LI Tie-gang, HU Wen-sui, DONG Zhi-qiang, LIU Xiang-yi, KANG Yan, MAO Xin-wu, WANG Ming   

  1. 1. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China; 2. School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University
  • Received:2014-02-20 Online:2014-08-20 Published:2014-08-11

Abstract: Objective To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps.Methods Based on the data of daily number of reported mumps cases and meteorological data including temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind velocity in Guangzhou during 2005-2012, the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence was explored using a distributed lag non-linear time series model.Results There were 49 760 mumps cases reported in Guangzhou during 2005-2012. The medians of daily average maximum, mean, and minimum temperature were 28.3, 24.2, and 21.2 ℃, respectively. The medians of average relative humidity, average sunshine hours, average wind velocity, and average atmospheric pressure were 75.0%, 3.9 h, 1.5 m/s, and 1 007.1hPa. The Spearman rank correlation analysis and the constructed model showed that mean temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity were positively associated with the incidence of mumps, whereas atmospheric pressure was inversely associated with it. The risk was highest when daily mean temperature was 34.2℃ on lag 0 day as the relative risk (RR) was 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.10); when relative humidity was 99% on lag 24 days, the RR was 1.39 (95% CI, 1.03-1.89) as the highest. Taking the median of each meteorological factor itself as the reference value, the RRs of the 99th percentile (31.7 ℃,95%)of daily mean temperature and relative humidity were 1.81(95%CI, 1.41-2.32),1.28(95% CI,1.02-1.59), respectively, in the total lag time of 30 and 24 days to the mumps incidence. Both hot and cold effects were larger in females than those in males, and the hot effect increased with age. Conclusion Mean temperature, relative humidity might be important predictors of the incidence of mumps in Guangzhou. More attention should be paid to the susceptible population during the summer.

CLC Number: 

  • R512.1