2013—2022年云浮市肠道传染病流行特征和时空聚集性分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2024.0001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2013—2022年云浮市肠道传染病的流行特征及时空聚集性。方法收集2013—2022年云浮市肠道传染病疫情报告数据,采用描述流行病学、空间自相关分析及时空扫描统计量等方法对肠道传染病报告发病情况进行分析。结果 2013—2022年云浮市报告法定肠道传染病8种,累计报告93 334例,年报告发病率10.45/万~56.76/万,年均报告发病率39.16/万。报告肠道传染病以手足口病和其他感染性腹泻病为主,共占报告肠道传染病的97.39%,年均报告发病率分别为33.18/万和4.95/万。年报告发病率整体呈下降趋势（趋势c²=65.837,P<0.01）。发病呈现季节性,呈双峰分布（5—7月和9—10月）,12月至次年3月处于低发水平。各年龄组均有病例报告,其中0~4岁组报告病例最多（77 118例,占82.63%）。空间自相关分析结果显示,2013—2022年云浮市报告肠道传染病发病率在街道（镇）尺度上呈空间正相关（全局Moran's I为0.592,Z=7.439,P<0.05）,具有空间聚集性。手足口病具有不同的“热点”高发区域。时空扫描分析显示2013—2022年云浮市肠道传染病发病在时空上存在明显聚集性,探测到Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类聚集区各1个,1个聚集季节（5—10月）,手足口病与其他感染性腹泻病具有不同的聚集区和聚集季节（月份）。结论 2013—2022年云浮市报告肠道传染病呈现明显的时空聚集性,应重点在流行季节前和在高发街道（镇）采取针对性防控措施。

关键词: 肠道传染病, 时空分布, 流行特征, 空间自相关, 时空扫描, 趋势分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial‐temporal clustering of intestinal infectious diseases in Yunfu City from 2013 to 2022. Methods The reported data of intestinal infectious diseases in Yunfu City from 2013 to 2022 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatial‐temporal scanning statistics were used to analyze the reported incidence of intestinal infectious diseases. Results From 2013 to 2022, Yunfu City reported eight kinds of notifiable intestinal infectious diseases, with a total of 93 334 cases reported, with an annual reported incidence of 10.45 per 10 000 to 56.76 per 10 000, and an annual reported incidence of 39.16 per 10 000. The reported intestinal infectious diseases were mainly hand, foot and mouth disease and other infectious diarrheal diseases, accounting for 97.39% of the reported intestinal infectious diseases, and the annual reported incidence was 33.18 per 10 000 and 4.95 per 10 000, respectively. The reported incidence rate showed a decreasing trend （trend c²=65.837, P<0.01）. The incidence was seasonal, with bimodal distribution （May‐July and September‐October）, and at a low level from December to March. Cases were reported in all age groups, among which the group of 0-4 years old reported the most cases （77 118 cases, accounting for 82.63%）. The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases reported in Yunfu City from 2013 to 2022 showed a spatial positive correlation at the street （town） scale （global Moran's I was 0.592, Z=7.439, P<0.05）, with spatial clustering. Hand, foot and mouth disease had different “hot spots” with high incidence. Spatial‐temporal scanning analysis showed that there were obvious spatial‐temporal clusters of intestinal infectious diseases in Yunfu City from 2013 to 2022, with one cluster area of class Ⅰ and one cluster area of class Ⅱ and one cluster season （May to October）. Hand, foot and mouth disease and other infectious diarrhea diseases had different cluster areas and cluster seasons （months）. Conclusions The intestinal infectious diseases reported in Yunfu City showed obvious spatial‐temporal clustering from 2013 to 2022. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken in pre‐epidemic season and high‐risk streets （towns）.

Key words: Intestinal infectious diseases, Spatial‐temporal distribution, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatial autocorrelation, Spatial‐temporal scanning, Trend analysis

中图分类号:

R183.4

廖晓文, 赵惠珍, 陈秋玲, 赖辉兵. 2013—2022年云浮市肠道传染病流行特征和时空聚集性分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2024, 50(1): 1-5.

LIAO Xiaowen, ZHAO Huizhen, CHEN Qiuling, LAI Huibing. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial‐temporal clustering of intestinal infectious diseases in Yunfu City,2013-2022[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2024, 50(1): 1-5.

参考文献

[1] 林小丹,毛秀华,姚卫光.2008—2018年中国肠道传染病流行特征及空间聚集性分析[J].中国全科医学,2023,26(4):417-425,439.
[2] Brein A,Sherrard‐Smith E,Sile B,et al.Spatical clusters of gonorrhea in England with particular reference to the outcome of partner notification:2012 and 2013[J].PLoS One,2018,13(4):e0195178.
[3] Zhu B,Liu J,Fu Y,et al.Spatio‐temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China(2003-2015):Implications for prevention and control policies[J].Int J Environ Res Public Health,2018,15(4):661.
[4] 刘牧文,孙昼,考庆君,等.2017—2019年浙江省杭州市登革热流行特征和时空聚集性分析[J].疾病监测,2022,37(4):481-486.
[5] 张驰,张旭彬,姚丽君,等.2009―2018年汕头市手足口病流行特征与时空聚集性[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2020,24(5):573-578,596.
[6] Kulldorff M,Heffeman R,Hartman J,et al.A space‐time permu‐tation scan statistic for disease outbreak detection[J].PLoS Med,2005,2(3):e59.
[7] Kulldorff M,Huang L,Pickle L,et al.An elliptic spatial scan statistic[J].Stat Med,2006,25(22):3929-3943.
[8] 白尧,陈志军,陈保忠,等.2013—2017年陕西省手足口病的时空流行特征[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2021,25(3):329-334.
[9] 闫旭,张晓瑞,朱明豪.前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在新冠肺炎疫情预警中的应用[J].北京建筑大学学报,2021,37(4):69-74.
[10] 赖辉兵,陈伟文,冯梓来.云浮市2008—2012年肠道传染病疫情动态分析[J].华南预防医学,2014,40(1):38-40.
[11] 夏春花,王笑灵,董建平.2012—2016年北京市海淀区传染病疫情流行特征[J].华南预防医学,2021,47(1):53-56.
[12] 蔡靖靖,栾荣生.2017—2022年四川省法定传染病流行特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2023,50(9):1566-1571.
[13] 黄照. 珠三角地区手足口病发病异常探测和预测预警研究[D].广州:广东药科大学,2019.
[14] 赵玉锋,姜栋栋,井飞.2017—2021年亳州市手足口病例及病原学特征分析[J].华南预防医学,2022,48(10):1227-1229,1233.
[15] 吴媛媛,孙亚辉,王娟,等.2018—2021年西安市儿童手足口病病例及病原学特征分析[J].华南预防医学,2023,49(1):75-78.
[16] 吕涛,张晶月,朱顺玲,等.2013—2017年襄阳市其他感染性腹泻流行特征分析[J].华南预防医学,2019,45(5):489-492.
[17] 夏光秀,胡彩琴,蓝秀英.2005—2016年连南瑶族自治县其他感染性腹泻流行特征分析[J].华南预防医学,2018,44(4):346-348.