2010—2019年武汉市甲状腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.1343

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的了解2010—2019年武汉市居民甲状腺癌发病和死亡流行特征,为甲状腺癌防制提供数据支持。方法利用武汉市死因及重点慢病监测系统收集2010—2019年武汉市居民甲状腺癌死亡及发病个案数据,计算武汉市居民不同性别、年龄之间甲状腺恶性肿瘤发病率、标化发病率、死亡率及标化死亡率的变化趋势。Joinpoint回归模型用于评价变化趋势。结果 2010—2019年武汉市甲状腺癌年平均发病率为33.75/10万,女性年平均发病率为52.38/10万,高于男性的15.66/10万（P<0.05）;甲状腺癌年平均死亡率为0.40/10万,女性（0.51/10万）高于男性（0.29/10万）（P<0.05）;2010—2019年武汉市甲状腺癌年发病率和年标化发病率呈逐年升高的趋势（AAPC=21.674%、21.720%,均P<0.05）;甲状腺癌年死亡率及年标化死亡率趋势变化无统计学意义（AAPC=4.891%、2.479%,均P>0.05）。甲状腺癌发病年龄曲线呈现单峰分布,男性发病高峰在40~<45岁年龄组;女性发病高峰在50~<55岁年龄组。结论 2010—2019年武汉市甲状腺癌女性发病和死亡明显高于男性,其中发病率逐年增长,而死亡率增长不明显,应对更年期女性积极开展甲状腺癌早期筛查。

关键词: 甲状腺恶性肿瘤, 发病率, 死亡率, Joinpoint回归模型

Abstract: Objective To investigate the trend of morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019, so as to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control. Methods Based on the incidence and mortality data of thyroid cancer between 2010 and 2019 in Wuhan mortality and chronic surveillance system. We analyzed the change trend of thyroid cancer in incidence, mortality, standardized mortality and standardized mortality among different gender and age-groups. A Joinpoint regression model was used to examine secular trends. Results From 2010 to 2019, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Wuhan was 33.75/10⁵. The incidence of thyroid cancer was 52.38/10⁵ in females which was much higher than that in males 15.66/10⁵, with statistical significance (P<0.05). The mortality rate of thyroid cancer was 0.4/10⁵ from 2010 to 2019. The mortality rate of thyroid cancer was 0.51/10⁵ in females which was much higher than that in males 0.29/10⁵, with statistical significance (P<0.05). Increasing trend were shown in incidence (AAPC was 21.674%, P<0.05) and standardized incidence (AAPC was 21.720%, P<0.05) of thyroid cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019. There was no statistical significance in the trend of thyroid cancer mortality (AAPC was 4.891%, P>0.05) and standardized mortality (AAPC was 2.479%, P>0.05). The age curve of thyroid cancer incidence showed an unimodal distribution, and the peak of male incidence was 40-<45 years old, the incidence peaks in the 50-<55 age group in females. Conclusions From 2010 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in females in Wuhan was significantly higher than that in males, and the incidence increased with age increased, while the death rate did not increase significantly. Therefore, early screening of thyroid cancer should be actively carried out for menopausal women.

Key words: Thyroid cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Joinpoint regression model

中图分类号:

R195.4

张晓霞, 罗俊, 赵原原, 邓青, 代娟. 2010—2019年武汉市甲状腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2025, 51(12): 1343-1346.

ZHANG Xiaoxia, LOU Jun, ZHAO Yuanyuan, DENG Qing, DAI Juan. Trends of Thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025, 51(12): 1343-1346.

参考文献

[1] Siegel RL, Miller KD, Wagle NS, et al.Cancer statistics, 2023[J]. CA Cancer J Clin, 2023, 73(1): 17-48.
[2] Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, et al.Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries[J]. CA Cancer J Clin, 2021, 71(3): 209-249.
[3] 姚承志,张译匀,吴霞,等. 1990—2019年全球甲状腺癌发病现状分析及2020—2030年发病趋势预测[J]. 中国肿瘤,2023,32(11):848-855.
[4] Wang J, Yu F, Shang Y, et al.Thyroid cancer: Incidence and mortality trends in China, 2005-2015[J]. Endocrine, 2020, 68(1): 163-173.
[5] 范文凭,林琳,刘江美,等. 基于GBD数据分析1990—2019年中国恶性肿瘤疾病负担趋势[J]. 中国肿瘤,2024,33(1):20-26.
[6] Wong M, Huang J, Chan P, et al.Global incidence and mortality of gastric cancer, 1980-2018[J]. JAMA Netw Open, 2021, 4(7): e2118457.
[7] 王蓓,艾勇彪,王群,等. 碘营养水平与甲状腺癌相关性的研究进展[J]. 现代肿瘤医学,2023,31(7):1348-1352.
[8] 龚巍巍. 2011—2015年浙江省甲状腺癌流行特征及危险因素研究[D]. 北京:中国疾病预防控制中心,2018.
[9] 王倩. 甲状腺癌患者的死因分布分析及死亡高危因素识别[D]. 南昌:南昌大学,2023.
[10] 李伟伟,董建梅,秦绪成,等. 1990—2019年江苏省甲状腺癌疾病负担及时间趋势分析[J]. 华南预防医学,2023,49(7):808-812.
[11] 滕卫平. 甲状腺疾病诊治现代进展[J]. 中国实用内科杂志,2019,39(4):311-315.
[12] Li M, Zheng R, Dal Maso L, et al.Mapping overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer in China[J]. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol, 2021, 9(6): 330-332.
[13] Zane M, Parello C, Pennelli G, et al.Estrogen and thyroid cancer is a stem affair: A preliminary study[J]. Biomed Pharmacother, 2017, 85: 399-411.
[14] Cordina-Duverger E, Leux C, Neri M, et al.Hormonal and reproductive risk factors of papillary thyroid cancer: A population-based case-control study in France[J]. Cancer Epidemiol, 2017, 48: 78-84.
[15] 曾玉环,夏亮,许燕君,等. 2014年广东省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J]. 华南预防医学,2021,47(5):623-626.
[16] 刘清霞,王丹,袁芝佩,等. 2015—2019年四川省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌流行特征及变化趋势[J]. 中国肿瘤,2024,33(7):523-528.
[17] Lamartina L, Leboulleux S, Borget I, et al.Global thyroid estimates in 2020[J]. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol, 2022, 10(4): 235-236.
[18] 郭晓慧,王丽敏,王辉,等. 2007—2016年天津市南开区甲状腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制,2021,29(11):878-881.
[19] 仇化微,梁天孚,黄苗苗,等. 基于年龄—时期—队列模型的中国甲状腺癌发病死亡趋势分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志,2023,13(4):270-274.
[20] 陈永胜,王军,张永辉,等. 1972—2021年江苏省启东市胰腺癌发病流行趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2024,33(6):451-458.
[21] 张新洲,刘劲松,许娴,等. 2005—2016年中国甲状腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析[J]. 中华肿瘤防治杂志,2022,29(24):1725-1733.
[22] Schuster-Bruce J, Jani C, Goodall R, et al.A comparison of the burden of thyroid cancer among the european union 15+ countries, 1990-2019: Estimates from the global burden of disease study[J]. JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg, 2022, 148(4): 350-359.
[23] Li M, Dal Maso L, Vaccarella S.Global trends in thyroid cancer incidence and the impact of overdiagnosis[J]. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol, 2020, 8(6): 468-470.