华南预防医学 ›› 2015, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 238-242.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2015.0238

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2008—2013年平顶山市传染病自动预警系统运行效果分析

吕锐利,王慧晶   

  1. 平顶山市疾病预防控制中心,河南 平顶山 467000
  • 出版日期:2015-06-15 发布日期:2015-06-23
  • 作者简介:吕锐利(1981—),女,硕士研究生,主管医师,主要从事疾病监测和控制工作

Operating effect of automatic early warning system in infectious diseases, Pingdingshan, 2008-2013

LV Rui-li, WANG Hui-jing   

  1. Pingdingshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Pingdingshan 467000, China
  • Online:2015-06-15 Published:2015-06-23

摘要: 目的了解传染病自动预警系统在平顶山市的运行情况,评价其运行效果,为进一步完善传染病预警工作模式提供依据。方法对 2008—2013年平顶山市传染病自动预警系统发出的预警信息进行描述性分析,并以灵敏度、阳性预测值和领先时间作为预警系统的主要评价指标分析其运行效果。结果2008—2013年平顶山市传染病自动预警系统共发出预警信息13 021条,经现场调查确认发生暴发或流行12 条;预警信息涉及病种24种,预警信息较多的病种有手足口病、其他感染性腹泻病、流行性腮腺炎、痢疾、丙型肝炎和麻疹,共计11 888条,占预警信息总数的91.30%。预警信号发出高峰在5—7月,共发出预警信号4 880条,占预警信息总数的37.48%。从发出预警信号到填报异常信息卡的预警响应时间中位数为0.40 h。预警系统灵敏度为85.71%,阳性预测值为0.09%。预警系统探测到的12起传染病暴发事件中,8起事件预警信号领先时间出现负值。结论平顶山市传染病自动预警系统灵敏度较高,但阳性预测值较低,建议适时合理调整预警阈值,使预警系统在基层传染病预警工作中真正发挥传染病预警的作用。

Abstract: Objective To understand the performance of automatic early warning information system (AEWIS), evaluate its operating results, and to provide scientific basis for further improvement of communicable disease early warning patterns. Methods Descriptive analysis method was used to describe the characteristics of warning information sent out by AEWIS from 2008 to 2013. Sensitivity, positive predictive value and lead time were taken as the main evaluation indicators for analyzing operating results of AEWIS. Results AEWIS issued 13 021 warning signals from 2008 to 2013 and 12 of the signals were confirmed to be outbreaks or epidemics through field investigations. Twenty-four kinds of infectious diseases were identified from the all early warning information issued. A total of 11 888(91.30%) diseases were hand, foot, and mouth disease, other infectious diarrhea, mumps, dysentery, hepatitis C, and measles. The peak number of early warning signals were 4 880 from May to July, accounting for 37.48% of the total signals. The median response time from early warning signal to submitting abnormal information card was 0.40 hour. The sensitivity of AEWIS was 85.71% and the positive predictive value was 0.09%. The lead time of the 8 of 12 outbreaks of infectious diseases detected by AEWIS was negative. Conclusion The sensitivity of the warning system is high, but the positive predictive value is low. It is recommended to adjust the threshold timely and reasonable, so that the early warning system can play a role in early warning outbreaks of infectious diseases at the grassroots level.

中图分类号: 

  • R183