关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 新型冠状病毒, 疫情防控, 快速风险评估

Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk of COVID-19 epidemic at various stages in Wenzhou City， Zhejiang Province and explore the establishment of rapid risk assessment method for changes in the COVID-19 epidemic situation in urban areas， so as to provide evidence for effective response strategies. Methods Data of COVID-19 cases were collected from official websites of the national and local health committees published from January 21， 2020 to February 16， 2020. The risk of COVID-19 in Wenzhou in different periods was assessed using the outbreak risk index （RI）. Results A total of 503 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in Wenzhou City， including 22 severe cases， and no deaths. The cases were aged from 2 to 93 years， with an average age of （47.69 ± 14.30） years. Males accounted for 49.30% and females accounted for 44.33%. Cases in four districts/counties/cities of Yueqing， Ruian， Lucheng， and Yongjia accounted for 72.37% of the total ones. During this period， the incidence rate of COVID-19 was 6.07/100 000 in Wenzhou， with statistically significant difference compared with Ningbo （2.59/100 000； 156/7 741 016）， Hangzhou （2.17/100 000； 168/7 741 016）， and Taizhou （2.41/100 000； 146/6 053 971） （P＜0.01）， and higher than that of the whole province （2.34/100 000， 1 171/49 998 360， P＜0.01）. The RI assessment showed that epidemic RIs were 19 points at the early stage， 19 at the mid stage， and 15 at the late stage. Both the early and mid stages were high-risk， and the risk was reduced to medium-high level at the late stage. Conclusion The rapid risk assessment method can be used to assess the epidemic risk in urban areas quickly and effectively， easy to be mastered by grass-roots prevention and control personnel， and suitable for governments at all levels to quickly assess the epidemic risk for decision-making.

Key words: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Epidemic prevention and control, Rapid risk assessment