关键词: 孕产妇死亡率, 死因, 孕产期保健, 灰色模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the change trend of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and mortality of main causes of death, and the correlation between maternal health care indicators and maternal mortality in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2019, and predict and analyze the MMR in the next few years, so as to provide basis for relevant departments to formulate intervention measures. Methods The MMR, mortality of main causes of death, and maternal health care indicators in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2019 were described. Chi-square trend test was used to analyze the trend of MMR and mortality of main causes of death. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between maternal health care indicators and maternal mortality, and GM (1, 1) Grey model for MMR prediction. Results MMR in Shaanxi Province, urban, and rural areas showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2019 (P<0.01). The mortality rates of obstetric hemorrhage, amniotic fluid embolism, hypertensive diseases during pregnancy, heart disease, venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism were all decreased (P<0.05 or P<0.01). There was a negative correlation between MMR and hospital delivery rate (r_s=-0.98, P<0.01), but there was no statistical significance between MMR and delivery examination rate, postpartum visit rate, and maternal system management rate ( all P>0.05). It was predicted that MMR in Shaanxi Province would decrease in 2020 - 2022. Conclusions The MMR in Shaanxi Province decreased significantly from 2010 to 2019. The focus of further reducing MMR should be on the training of knowledge and skills in medical complications and improving the quality of maternal health care services.

Key words: Maternal mortality ratio, Cause of death, Maternal health care, Grey model