2014—2021年佛山市禅城区四类慢性病早死概率及达标分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.0137

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2014—2021年佛山市禅城区4类慢性病的死亡情况和早死概率变化趋势,预测2025年和2030年早死概率目标达标情况。方法收集2014—2021年佛山市禅城区户籍居民死亡个案信息和户籍人口资料,计算构成比、粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率等指标,采用Joinpoint回归模型估算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change,AAPC）和早死概率预测值。结果 2014—2021年,全人群、男性和女性4类慢性病标化死亡率均呈下降趋势,AAPC分别为-3.01%、-2.52%和-3.66%（均P<0.01）。糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病的粗死亡率和标化死亡率均呈下降趋势（均P<0.01）。全人群4类慢性病早死概率由2014年11.38%下降到2021年9.93%,AAPC为-2.48%（P<0.05）,女性4类慢性病早死概率由7.51%下降到6.20%,AAPC为-3.65%（P<0.05）,男性4类慢性病早死概率变化趋势无统计学意义（P>0.05）。预测结果显示,佛山市禅城区2025年和2030年的早死概率预测值分别为9.33%、8.23%,分别低于《中国防治慢性病中长期规划（2017—2025年）》2025年和《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》2030年早死概率目标值9.88%、8.65%。结论 2014—2021年佛山市禅城区4类慢性病早死概率整体呈下降趋势,应继续加强慢性病综合防控工作,争取实现低于2025年和2030年早死概率规划目标值。

关键词: 四类慢性病, 死亡水平, 早死概率, 达标

Abstract: Objective To analyze the mortality and the trends of probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in Chancheng District, Foshan City during 2014-2021, and to predict the targets achievement of premature death probabilities for the years 2025 and 2030. Methods The death cases and population data of registered residents in Chancheng District during 2014-2021 were collected. The constituent ratio, crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, and the probability of premature mortality were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and the predicted value of probability of premature mortality. Results During 2014-2021, the standardized mortality rate caused by chronic diseases in total population, males, and females showed decreasing trends, with AAPCs of -3.01%, -2.52%, and -3.66%, respectively (all P<0.01). The crude mortality rates and standardized mortality rates of diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases all showed decreasing trends (all P<0.01). The probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases in total population decreased from 11.38% in 2014 to 9.93% in 2021, with the AAPC of -2.48% (P<0.05). The probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases decreased from 7.51% to 6.20% for females, with the AAPC of -3.65% (P<0.05), while without statistically significant for males (P>0.05). The predicted probability of premature mortality in Chancheng District, Foshan City in 2025 and 2030 were 9.33% and 8.23%, respectively, which were lower than the target premature death probabilities of 9.88% and 8.65% in 2025 and 2030 in the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for Chronic Disease Control and Prevention in China (2017-2025) " and "Healthy China 2030" Planning Outline, respectively. Conclusions The probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases in Chancheng District showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2021. We should continue to strengthen the control and prevention of chronic diseases, and strive to achieve a lower probability of premature mortality than the planned targets for 2025 and 2030.

Key words: Four chronic diseases, Death level, Probability of premature mortality, Achieve the targets

中图分类号:

R195.4

黄敏婵, 陈凤灵, 黄锦航, 何锦森, 黄雅卿. 2014—2021年佛山市禅城区四类慢性病早死概率及达标分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2025, 51(2): 137-142.

HUANG Minchan, CHEN Fengling, HUANG Jinhang, HE Jinsen, HUANG Yaqing. Analysis of the probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in Chancheng District, Foshan City (2014-2021) and forecasting target achievement[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025, 51(2): 137-142.

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