关键词: 医疗资源供给, 医疗服务利用, 耦合协调度, 时空分析, 贝叶斯层次模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the coupling coordination degree between medical resource supply and healthcare service utilization in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2013 to 2022, providing an evidentiary basis for optimizing medical resource allocation and enhancing service levels. Methods Utilizing data on medical resource supply and service utilization from the Inner Mongolia Health Statistics Yearbook, a coupling coordination degree model was employed to analyze the coordinated development of these two systems. Subsequently, a Bayesian hierarchical model was applied to investigate the dynamic trends and spatial distribution characteristics of the coupling degree. Results The analysis from the coupling coordination degree model indicated a progressive increase in the coordination level between medical resource supply and healthcare service utilization in Inner Mongolia, rising from 0.5606 in 2013 to 0.7196 in 2022, transitioning from a state of "reluctant coordination" to "moderate coordination." Over the period of 2013-2022, all 12 leagues and cities in Inner Mongolia demonstrated an upward trend in coupling coordination. The degree in the eastern region increased from 0.5721 to 0.7387, the western region from 0.6082 to 0.7425, and the central region from 0.5105 to 0.6786. The Bayesian hierarchical model analysis revealed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the coupling coordination degree for each year from 2013 to 2022. The average spatial correlation coefficient exhibited minor fluctuations, ranging between 0.3871 and 0.4819, with the peak value observed in 2020 (ρ=0.4819) and the nadir in 2021 (ρ=0.3871), suggesting a relatively stable spatial distribution pattern of the coupling coordination degree. Conclusion The coupling coordination between medical resource supply and healthcare service utilization in Inner Mongolia has continually improved. Nevertheless, the issue of lagging service utilization in areas with abundant medical resources warrants further attention. The application of Bayesian spatial statistical methods in small-sample research is noteworthy, and future efforts should focus on strengthening the spatial equilibrium of the supply-demand match in medical resources.

Key words: Medical resource supply, Healthcare service utilization, Coupling coordination degree, Spatiotemporal analysis, Bayesian hierarchical model