1990—2021年中国、全球及不同社会人口学指数地区百日咳疾病负担变化趋势分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2026.0171

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析1990—2021年中国、全球及不同社会人口学指数（SDI）地区百日咳疾病负担变化趋势,为百日咳防控策略制定提供参考。方法从2021年全球疾病负担（GBD 2021）数据库获取1990—2021年中国、全球及不同SDI地区百日咳疾病负担数据,运用Joinpoint回归模型分析其疾病负担的时间变化趋势。结果 2021年中国百日咳标化发病率、标化患病率、标化死亡率和标化伤残调整寿命年（DALY）率分别为18.07/10万、2.48/10万、0.15/10万和12.97/10万,1990—2021年中国百日咳标化发病率、标化患病率、标化死亡率和标化DALY率均呈显著下降趋势,AAPC分别-8.32%（95% CI：-9.15%~-7.49%）、-8.33%（95% CI：-9.16%~-7.50%）、-8.70%（95% CI：-11.14%~-6.20%）和-8.89%（95% CI：-11.58%~-6.13%）。百日咳疾病负担随年龄增长呈现先下降后上升趋势,<5岁组人群百日咳疾病负担最高,25~<30岁年龄组人群百日咳疾病负担最低,30~<35岁年龄组人群百日咳疾病负担开始逐渐上升。1990—2021年中国百日咳总体疾病负担均高于高SDI地区,低于全球、中SDI地区、中低SDI和低SDI地区。结论中国百日咳疾病负担整体虽呈下降趋势,但仍较为沉重。应强化监测及研究深度,以更有效地控制和预防百日咳的传播。

关键词: 百日咳, 疾病负担, 社会人口学指数

Abstract: Objective To analyze the temporal trends in the disease burden of pertussis from 1990 to 2021 in China, globally, and across regions with varying Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels, thereby providing an evidence base for the formulation of pertussis prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on the burden of pertussis for the period 1990-2021 for China, global regions, and different SDI quintiles were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) study. A Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the long-term temporal trends in the disease burden metrics. Results In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) rate of pertussis in China were 18.07, 2.48, 0.15, and 12.97 per 100 000 population, respectively. Over the period from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates for pertussis in China all demonstrated a significant declining trend, with Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPC) of -8.32% (95% CI: -9.15% to -7.49%), -8.33% (95% CI: -9.16% to -7.50%), -8.70% (95% CI: -11.14% to -6.20%), and -8.89% (95% CI: -11.58% to -6.13%), respectively. The disease burden of pertussis exhibited a trend of initially decreasing and subsequently increasing with age. The highest burden was observed in the under-5 age cohort, reaching its nadir in the 25-<30 age group, and then gradually increasing from the 30-<35 age group onwards. From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of pertussis in China consistently surpassed that of high-SDI regions, while remaining lower than the global average as well as the burdens in middle, low-middle, and low-SDI regions. Conclusion Although the overall disease burden of pertussis in China exhibits a significant downward trend, it remains a considerable public health concern. It is imperative to enhance surveillance systems and deepen etiological research to more effectively control and prevent the transmission of pertussis.

Key words: Pertussis, Disease burden, Socio-demographic Index

中图分类号:

R183.3

杨岩岩, 袁浩冉, 史壮, 张雪, 张丽. 1990—2021年中国、全球及不同社会人口学指数地区百日咳疾病负担变化趋势分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2026, 52(2): 171-177.

Yang Yanyan, Yuan Haoran, Shi Zhuang, Zhang Xue, Zhang Li. Analysis of temporal trends in the disease burden of pertussis in China, globally, and across Socio-demographic Index Regions, 1990-2021[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2026, 52(2): 171-177.

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