关键词: 传染病, 风险评估, 风险管理

Abstract: Objective s To assess the epidemic risk of key infectious diseases in Guangdong Province in 2019 and analyze key risk factors.Methods Relevant information was collected and the epidemic risk was judged by semi-quantitative risk assessment and expert consultation method.Results The risk of importing dengue cases abroad to Guangdong Province will exist year round in 2019 and the local epidemic may begin in May and June. The human avian influenza epidemic may remain at a low level. The incidences of norovirus infection may be higher than those in winter and spring of 2017-2018. Seasonal influenza epidemics may peak in winter, spring and summer. The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease may be higher than that in 2018 or remain flat, and the severity and mortality may be maintained at a lower level. The measles epidemic may increase slightly compared with 2018. The outbreaks of chickenpox and mumps may be lower than those in 2018. The risks of importing cases of Chikungunya and Zika virus disease persist. The risk of importing poliomyelitis, malaria, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and Ebola virus disease may not be excluded, which may have the possibility of local transmission.Conclusion sIn 2019, Guangdong Province should pay special attention to the dengue fever epidemic, focus on human avian influenza, norovirus infection, seasonal influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease, and need to pay attention to measles, chickenpox, mumps, and imported diseases such as Chikungunya fever.

Key words: Infectious disease, Risk assessment, Risk management