关键词: 急性乙型肝炎, 流行病学特征, 乙型肝炎疫苗, 年龄-时期-队列分析

Abstract: Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends of acute hepatitis B in Foshan, China, from 2005 to 2024, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for its prevention and control. Methods A descriptive epidemiological approach was employed to analyze reported cases of acute hepatitis B in Foshan City from 2005 to 2024. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) was utilized to delineate the temporal trends in incidence across different districts of the city. Furthermore, an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was applied to dissect the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the incidence patterns of acute hepatitis B. Results Between 2005 and 2024, a total of 10 079 cases of acute hepatitis B were reported in Foshan, corresponding to an average annual incidence of 6.79 per 100 000 population. A significant downward trend in incidence was observed, decreasing from 18.73 per 100 000 in 2005 to 0.53 per 100 000 in 2024, which represents a 97.17% reduction. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) was -21.27% (95% CI: -24.60% to -17.79%). All districts exhibited a significant, albeit fluctuating, decline in incidence rates, with the Nanhai district showing the most rapid decrease (EAPC=-24.21%), while the Gaoming district experienced a more gradual decline (EAPC=-12.02%). The incidence rate among the population under 15 years of age consistently remained at a low level. The most substantial decrease was observed in the 15 to <30 years age group for both males (99.84%) and females (99.71%). The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis revealed that the age effect on acute hepatitis B incidence peaked in the 24 to <30 age group for males and the 20 to <25 age group for females, with rates increasing by 21.23/100 000 and 9.06/100 000, respectively, compared to the reference age group. The period effect indicated a consistent downward trend in incidence. The cohort effect was most pronounced for the 1980-1984 birth cohort for both males and females, with incidence rates increasing by 21.79/100 000 and 9.02/100 000, respectively, relative to the reference cohort. Conclusion The incidence of acute hepatitis B in Foshan demonstrated a significant declining trend from 2005 to 2024, with rates among the population aged under 15 years remaining consistently low. This substantial public health achievement can be attributed to the integration of the hepatitis B vaccine into the National Immunization Program in 2002, complemented by subsequent catch-up vaccination campaigns and comprehensive strategies for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

Key words: Acute hepatitis B, Epidemiological characteristic, Hepatitis B vaccine, Age-period-cohort analysis