South China Journal of Preventive Medicine ›› 2021, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 310-314.doi: 10.12183/j.scjpm.2021.0310

• Original Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis and tendency forecastingon supply-demand of doctorresourcein 21 prefecture cities in Guangdong

HE Yi-zhou1, CAO Rong2, CAI Hui2, CHEN Zhao-yue2, XIA Ying-hua2, BIAN Qiao1, HE Qun2, ZHANG Yong-hui1   

  1. 1. School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 550014, China;
    2. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2020-11-24 Online:2021-03-20 Published:2021-04-14

Abstract: Objective To analyze the supply-demand of doctor resource in 21 prefecture cities in Guangdong, and forecast the change trend of supply-demand in 2022. Methods Based on the health service demand method and Holt exponential smoothing model, the inpatient and outpatient service data of each city in Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2019 were collected to fit and forecast the supply-demand relationship of doctors in 2022. Results It is predicted that in 2022, the demand for doctors in Guangdong will be 322 290, and the total number of medical practitioner and assistant medical practitioner will be 331 806. The supply situation of doctors in Guangdongis relatively sufficient. In 2019, Zhuhai(1.33),Shantou(1.31) and Shanwei(1.31) had the highest supply-demand ratio, while Maoming (0.55), Zhongshan (0.76) and Jiangmen (0.76) had the lowest one.It is predicted that in 2022, the supply-demand ratio in Shanwei(1.64),Zhuhai(1.34) and Shenzhen(1.28) will be the highest, while Maoming (0.58),Jiangmen (0.79) and Yunfu(0.90) will be the lowest ones. Conclusion The supply-demand of doctors in Guangdong will be good in 2022, and there will be an over supply of doctors. The supply-demand of doctors in most of 21 cities will be improved.

Key words: health service demand, Medical resource, Supply and demand of doctors, Forecasting

CLC Number: 

  • R192