Abstract: ObjectiveTo explore the application of curvilinear estimation in the prediction of influenza incidence and evaluate the forecast effect, so as to provide a theoretical basis for prevention of influenza.MethodsMoving average method was applied to establish a database of the monthly incidence of influenza from 2010 to 2014 in Anhui Province, curve estimation was used to conduct the model fitting and merge the best model on data of cases in 2015 to assess the fitting effect.ResultsTotal of 38 523 influenza cases were reported by medical institutions and centers for disease control and prevention at all levels in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2015, with annual incidence rates ranging from 4.35 to 18.58 per 100 000.The differences of annual incidence rates were statistically significant (P＜0.01). The most cases were concentrated in December and January to March,accounting for 47.14% (18 160/38 523) of the total cases. A small peak in incidence of influenza was observed in August, accounting for8.58% (3 306/38 523)of the total cases. Model fitting result showed that the cases in April to July, and September fitted for cubic curve model; January, August, and October fitted for quadratic curve model; November and December fitted for linear curve model; February fitted for S curve model; March fitted for power curve model. Model prediction showed that there were 11 938 cases of influenza in 2015, and the actual reported cases were 11 300, with a prediction error rate of 5.34%.ConclusionCurvilinear estimation can be used as a relatively reliableapproach for predicting the incidence of influenza.