2010—2023年气温对深圳中北部手足口病发病的影响

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.1060

华南预防医学 ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (10): 1060-1065.doi: 10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.1060

• 论著 • 下一篇

2010—2023年气温对深圳中北部手足口病发病的影响

曾愉^1,2, 李武¹, 陈敏华³, 方捷³, 熊华威⁴, 叶碧莉¹, 吕鸿鑫³

1.深圳市龙岗区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳 518000;
2.深圳市现场流行病学培训项目;
3.深圳市龙华区疾病预防控制中心;
4.深圳市疾病预防控制中心

收稿日期:2024-12-26 出版日期:2025-10-20 发布日期:2025-11-14
通讯作者: 李武,E-mail：liwu01@foxmail.com;吕鸿鑫,E-mail：806818334@qq.com
作者简介:曾愉（1995—）,女,硕士研究生,主管医师,主要从事传染病预防控制工作
基金资助:
深圳市龙岗区科技创新专项资金医疗卫生技术攻关项目（LGKCYLWS2023033）; 深圳市龙华区医疗卫生机构2025年区级科研项目（2025060）

The impact of temperature on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in north-central Shenzhen, 2010-2023

ZENG Yu^1,2, LI Wu¹, CHEN Minhua³, FANG Jie³, XIONG Huawei⁴, YE Bili¹, LYU Hongxin³

1. Shenzhen Longgang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China;
2. ShenZhen Field Epidemiology Training Program;
3. Shenzhen Longhua District Center for Disease Control and Prevention;
4. Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Received:2024-12-26 Online:2025-10-20 Published:2025-11-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探究日均气温对深圳市中北部地区手足口病日发病数的影响,分析不同年龄段人群的效应差异。方法收集2010—2023年深圳市中北部（龙岗区及龙华区）手足口病发病资料及气象资料。以24.6 ℃（P₅₀）作为参照,应用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与滞后天数对发病的影响,探究低温（P₅=13.5 ℃）、高温（P₉₅=30.0 ℃）的单日和累积滞后效应。结果 2010—2023年深圳市中北部累计报告手足口病250 138例,年均报告发病率为336.98/10万。滞后效应累积至21 d时,气温对手足口病的总体效应呈倒“V”型,在28.7 ℃时发病风险最大（RR=3.567,95% CI：3.279~3.880）。低温仅在滞后1~3 d、高温则在滞后1~21 d增加发病风险（RR>1）。低温的累积滞后效应为保护效应（RR<1）,高温的为危害效应（RR>1）。低温、高温效应均对5岁以下儿童更显著。结论日均气温对深圳市中北部手足口病日发病数呈非线性且具有滞后性,高温时应加强防控工作并重点关注<5岁儿童,低温时需关注≥5岁人群。

关键词: 手足口病, 日均气温, 分布滞后非线性模型, 年龄

Abstract: Objective To investigate the effect of daily mean temperature on the daily incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the north-central region of Shenzhen and to analyze the differential effects among various age groups. Methods Data on HFMD incidence and meteorological records from 2010 to 2023 were collected for the north-central districts of Shenzhen (Longgang and Longhua). A Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was employed to analyze the impact of temperature and lag days on HFMD incidence, using 24.6 ℃ (P₅₀) as the reference. The single-day and cumulative lag effects of low temperature (P₅=13.5 ℃) and high temperature (P₉₅=30.0 ℃) were subsequently explored. Results A total of 250 138 HFMD cases were reported in north-central Shenzhen between 2010 and 2023, corresponding to an average annual incidence rate of 336.98 per 100 000 population. The overall temperature-HFMD association, cumulative over a 21-day lag, exhibited an inverted "V" shape, with the peak relative risk (RR) of 3.567 (95% CI: 3.279-3.880) occurring at 28.7 °C. Low temperatures were associated with an increased risk of incidence at lags of 1-3 days, whereas high temperatures demonstrated an increased risk across lags of 1-21 days (RR>1). The cumulative lag effect of low temperature was found to be protective (RR<1), while that of high temperature was detrimental (RR>1). The effects of both low and high temperatures were more pronounced in children under the age of five. Conclusions The relationship between daily mean temperature and the daily incidence of HFMD in north-central Shenzhen is non-linear and subject to a lag effect. Enhanced prevention and control measures are warranted during periods of high temperature, with a specific focus on children under five years of age. Conversely, during periods of low temperature, attention should be directed towards the population aged five years and older.

Key words: Hand,foot,and mouth disease, Daily mean temperature, Distributed lag non-linear model, Age

中图分类号:

R183.4

曾愉, 李武, 陈敏华, 方捷, 熊华威, 叶碧莉, 吕鸿鑫. 2010—2023年气温对深圳中北部手足口病发病的影响[J]. 华南预防医学, 2025, 51(10): 1060-1065.

ZENG Yu, LI Wu, CHEN Minhua, FANG Jie, XIONG Huawei, YE Bili, LYU Hongxin. The impact of temperature on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in north-central Shenzhen, 2010-2023[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025, 51(10): 1060-1065.

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2010—2023年气温对深圳中北部手足口病发病的影响

The impact of temperature on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in north-central Shenzhen, 2010-2023

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