珠江三角洲地区大气臭氧引起居民死亡风险的时空分布及其修饰因素

doi:10.13217/j.scjpm.2016.201

华南预防医学 ›› 2016, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 201-207.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2016.201

• 论著 • 下一篇

珠江三角洲地区大气臭氧引起居民死亡风险的时空分布及其修饰因素

刘涛^1，2，曾韦霖^1，2，林华亮^1，2，肖建鹏^1，2，李杏^1，2，许燕君³，许晓君³，柯维夏^1，2，马文军^1，2

1. 广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院，广东广州 511430；2. 广东省“十二五”医学重点学科——环境与健康；3. 广东省疾病预防控制中心

收稿日期:2015-10-29 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-08-03
作者简介:刘涛（1982—），男，博士研究生，副主任医师，从事环境流行病学和慢性病流行病学研究

Temperal-spatial distribution of motality risk caused by ambient ozone and its modification factors in the Pearl River Delta region

LIU Tao^1,2，ZENG Wei-lin^1,2，LIN Hua-liang^1,2，XIAO Jian-peng^1,2，LI Xing^1,2，XU Yan-jun³，XU Xiao-jun³，KE Wei-xia^1,2，MA Wen-jun^1,2

1.Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430，China; 2. Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth FiveYear Plan; 3. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Received:2015-10-29 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-08-03
Contact: 国家自然科学基金（81502819）；广东省医学基金（A2014187） E-mail:mwj68@vip.tom.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的了解珠江三角洲地区城市大气臭氧（O3）对居民死亡风险的影响及其时空分布情况，并进一步探讨影响时空分布的修饰因素。方法采用时间序列研究方法。选择广州、东莞、佛山、江门和肇庆市为研究点，从广东省疾病预防控制中心获得2013—2014年期间每日非意外死亡数据，从广东省环境监测中心获得每日大气O3浓度，从广东省气象局获得每日气象数据。采用广义相加模型（GAM）分别分析全年、冷季（11月至次年4月）和暖季（5—10月）中Lag 02（滞后2 d）期间O3平均浓度上升（10 μg/m3）引起的超额死亡风险（ER），采用Meta分析对多城市的结果进行合并，并采用Meta回归探讨年平均O3浓度、老年人口(>65岁)比例和人均收入水平等因素对不同城市之间O3效应差异的影响。结果2013—2014年期间广州、东莞、佛山、江门和肇庆市每日平均非意外死亡人数分别为136.2、29.5、9.3、77.2和18.9例；大气O3日平均浓度分别为57.0、71.9、53.9、53.9和64.6 μg/ m3。全年分析发现，广州、东莞、佛山、江门和肇庆市大气O3浓度每增加10 μg/ m3引起居民死亡风险的ER分别为0.37%（95%CI：0.07%~0.66%）、0.44%（95%CI：-0.11%~0.99%）、-0.05%（95%CI：-1.08%~0.99%）、0.21%（95%CI：-0.23%~0.66%）和0.65%（95%CI：-0.09%~1.40%）。Meta分析合并的ER值为0.35%（95%CI：0.14%~0.56%），并且冷季（ER=0.51%，95%CI：0.20%~0.83%）的合并效应高于暖季（ER=0.22%，95%CI：-0.07%~0.51%）。Meta回归分析发现O3的死亡效应与各城市的日平均O3浓度和老年人的比例呈正相关，与人均年收入和开支水平呈负相关，但是均没有统计学意义。结论珠江三角洲地区大气O3可增加居民的死亡风险，冷季效应高于暖季，且不同城市间的O3健康效应差别明显，大气O3平均浓度、老年人比例和收入水平对O3效应的修饰效应尚不明确，有待进一步研究。

Abstract: ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of ambient ozone on mortality risk and its temperal-spatial distribution in the Pearl River Delta cities, and further explore modification factors of the variation in the distribution. MethodsA time-series study design was employed. Cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing were selected as study settings. Daily non-accidental mortality data from 2013 to 2014 in each city were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The contemporaneous daily ambient ozone concentration and meteorological indictors were obtained from Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center and Guangdong Meteorological Service, respectively. A generalized additive model was used to estimate the excess risk (ER) of mortality for each 10μg/m3 increment in average ambient ozone concentration during Lag 02 days in the full year, cold season (November to April), and warm season (May to October) in each city. Then a Meta-analysis was used to quantitatively combine the ERs in each city. Finally, a Meta-regression model was used to explore the effects of city specific ambient ozone level, elderly population proportion (>65 years), and average income level on the ER in the cities.ResultsFrom 2013 to 2014, the average daily nonaccidental deaths were 136.2, 29.5, 9.3, 77.2, and 18.9 and the average concentrations of atmospheric ozone were 57.0, 71.9, 53.9, 53.9, and 64.6 μg/m3 in cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing, respectively. In the full year, a 10μg/m3 increment in ambient ozone concentration was associated with an increment in ER by 0.37% (95%CI：0.07% - 0.66%), 0.44% (95%CI：-0.11% -0.99%), -0.05% (95%CI：-1.08% - 0.99%), 0.21% (95%CI：-0.23% - 0.66%), and 0.65% (95%CI: -0.09% - 1.40%) of total mortalities in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing, respectively. The combined ER in the five cities was 0.35% (95%CI：0.14% -0.56%). The pooled ER in the cold season (ER=0.51%，95%CI：0.20% - 0.83%) was larger than that in the warm season (ER=0.22%，95%CI：-0.07% - 0.51%). Meta regression analysis showed that the city specific ER was positively related to the annual average ozone concentration and elderly population proportion, but negatively related to average income level although without statistical significance.ConclusionThe ambient ozone in the Pearl River Delta region could increase the mortality risk of population with a higher effect in the cold season. The health effects of ozone largely differentiated between cities. The modification effects of ambient ozone level, proportion of the elderly, and income level on the ER are still not clear, which needs further study.

中图分类号:

R122.7

刘涛，曾韦霖，林华亮，肖建鹏，李杏，许燕君，许晓君，柯维夏，马文军. 珠江三角洲地区大气臭氧引起居民死亡风险的时空分布及其修饰因素[J]. 华南预防医学, 2016, 42(3): 201-207.

LIU Tao，ZENG Wei-lin，LIN Hua-liang，XIAO Jian-peng，LI Xing，XU Yan-jun，XU Xiao-jun，KE Wei-xia，MA Wen-jun. Temperal-spatial distribution of motality risk caused by ambient ozone and its modification factors in the Pearl River Delta region[J]. S China J Prev Med, 2016, 42(3): 201-207.

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珠江三角洲地区大气臭氧引起居民死亡风险的时空分布及其修饰因素

Temperal-spatial distribution of motality risk caused by ambient ozone and its modification factors in the Pearl River Delta region

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