关键词: 脑肿瘤, 生存率, 趋势

Abstract: Objective To analyze the survival rate of brain and central nervous system tumors （hereinafter referred to as brain tumors） in the whole population from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, to provide the basis for prognosis evaluation and prevention. Methods Based on the cancer registration case data in Qidong City, the observed survival rate （OSR） and relative survival rate （RSR） were calculated using the Hakulinen method in SURV3.01 software, and statistical test was performed using Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change （APC） of brain tumors survival rate. The ARIMA model in time series analysis was used to predict the survival rate trend of brain tumor patients with SAS 9.2 software. Results The 1, 5, and 10-year OSR of brain tumors in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016 were 30.11%, 14.94%, and 11.84%, respectively; the 1, 5, and 10-year RSR were 30.77%, 16.70%, and 14.94%, respectively. Survival analysis by period showed a statistically significant upward trend in RSR （P<0.01）. The RSR of males were lower than that of females, and the difference was statistically significant （P<0.01）. There was a statistically significant difference in RSR among each age group （P<0.01）. The APC results showed that the overall APC of 5-year OSR and 5-year RSR from 1972 to 2016 were 3.45% （P<0.01） and 3.63% （P<0.01）, respectively. The APC of male 5- year RSR was 6.53% （P<0.01）, and the APC of female 5- year RSR was 6.99% （P<0.01）. The prediction results showed that the 5-year OSR of brain tumors in Qidong would increase to 33.06% and the 5-year RSR would increase to 38.48% by 2026. Conclusions From 1972 to 2016, the survival rate of brain tumor patients in Qidong has been steadily improved, but there is still a lot of room for improvement. More attention to the prevention and treatment of brain tumors is recommended.

Key words: Brain tumor, Survival rate, Trend