关键词: 湿粉类食品, 蜡样芽胞杆菌, 风险评估, 模型

Abstract: Objective To conduct quantitative risk assessment for the contamination level of Bacillus cereus （B. cereus） in commercially wet rice noodles in Guangzhou. Methods Based on the contamination level of B. cereus in 139 samples of commercially wet rice noodles in Guangzhou collected and quantitatively detected from 2019 to 2020, which was determined as the initial value, combined with the consumption data, the @Risk 7.5 software was used to construct a model and conduct simulation analysis. Results A total of 95% of commercially available samples had B. cereus contamination levels in the range of -4.09 - 6.02 log CFU/g, and 3.6% exceeded the risk threshold of 5 log CFU/g. The model predicted that the final contamination level of B. cereus in 95% samples was -3.18 - 7.63 log CFU/g, and 45.3% exceeded the risk threshold. Combined with the consumption data, the final exposure average of B. cereus was 738.55 log CFU/time, and 37.8% exceeded the exposure risk threshold of 963 log CFU/time. The exposure risk of B. cereus in wet rice noodles was higher. According to the sensitivity analysis, storage temperature was the main risk control factor with the correlation coefficient （r） of 0.48, followed by initial pollution level, storage time, and consumption, the corresponding r values were 0.43, 0.42, and 0.38, respectively. Conclusion It is suggested that the sales should adopt the low-temperature storage and recommended that consumers avoid buying wet rice noodles stored at normal temperature, and should eat it as soon as possible after purchase to avoid long-term storage, to inhibit the growth and reproduction of microorganisms and the production of toxins.

Key words: Wet rice noodles, Bacillus cereus, Risk assessment, Model