1990—2021年中国结核病疾病负担动态变化、危险因素及未来趋势预测

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2026.0500

华南预防医学 ›› 2026, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (5): 500-505.doi: 10.12183/j.scjpm.2026.0500

1990—2021年中国结核病疾病负担动态变化、危险因素及未来趋势预测

李鸿云¹, 钱磊¹, 李爽², 宜诗焙³, 王永斌³, 高然朋¹

1.中国人民解放军陆军第八十三集团军医院,河南新乡 453000;
2.新乡医学院第三附属医院;
3.新乡医学院公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计系

收稿日期:2025-03-07 出版日期:2026-05-20 发布日期:2026-06-05
通讯作者: 李鸿云,E-mail：lihongy321@126.com;王永斌,E-mail：wybwho@163.com
作者简介:李鸿云（1987—）,男,硕士研究生,主管技师,研究方向为传染病流行病学
基金资助:
河南省高等学校重点科研项目（21A330004）;国家级大学生创新项目（202410472012）

Temporal trends, risk factors, and future projections of tuberculosis disease burden in China, 1990-2021

Li Hongyun¹, Qian Lei¹, Li Shuang², Yi Shibei³, Wang Yongbin³, Gao Ranpeng¹

1. The 83rd Group Army Hospital of The People's Liberation Army of China, Xinxiang, Henan 453000, China;
2. The Third Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University;
3. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University

Received:2025-03-07 Online:2026-05-20 Published:2026-06-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析1990—2021年中国结核病的疾病负担变化趋势,探讨主要危险因素对疾病负担的影响,并预测未来趋势。方法基于全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease,GBD）2021数据库,提取中国结核病发病、患病、死亡和DALYs数据及年龄标化率（Age-standardized Rates,ASR）。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析趋势变化,计算年度百分比变化（Annual Percent Change,APC）和平均年度百分比变化（Average Annual Percent Change,AAPC）。应用Norpred模型预测2022—2035年结核病负担趋势。结果 1990—2021年中国结核病年龄标化发病率（Age-standardized Incidence Rate,ASIR）从1990年的109.01/10万下降至2021年的36.28/10万（AAPC=-3.48%,95% CI：-3.63%~-3.34%）,年龄标化患病率（Age-standardized Prevalence Rate,ASPR）从31 445.76/10万降至30 557.45/10万（AAPC=-0.10%,95% CI：-0.14%~-0.06%）,年龄标化死亡率（Age-standardized Mortality Rate, ASMR）从20.09/10万降至1.91/10万（AAPC=-7.42%,95% CI：-7.78%~-7.07%）,年龄标化DALY率（Age-standardized DALY Rate,ASDR）从719.42/10万降至76.22/10万（AAPC=-7.00%,95% CI：-7.18%~-6.81%）。男性负担高于女性。吸烟和饮酒是主要归因因素,分别导致28.0%、18.4%的死亡风险及28.0%、18.8%的DALYs风险。Norpred模型预测显示,2022—2035年ASIR、ASMR和ASDR预计持续下降。结论中国结核病负担显著下降,但男性负担高于女性,吸烟和饮酒是主要可控危险因素。需针对高风险人群优化防控策略,采取更有针对性的干预措施进一步降低结核病的疾病负担。

关键词: 结核病, 疾病负担, 变化趋势, 危险因素, 趋势预测

Abstract: Objective To analyze the dynamic trends in the disease burden of tuberculosis in China between 1990 and 2021, explore the influence of key risk factors on this burden, and forecast future trajectories. Methods Data pertaining to the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of tuberculosis in China, along with their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASR), were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to analyze temporal trends, calculating the annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC). Future trends in the tuberculosis burden from 2022 to 2035 were projected using the Norpred model. Results a significant decline was observed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of tuberculosis in China, which decreased from 109.01 per 100 000 population in 1990 to 36.28 per 100 000 in 2021 (AAPC=-3.48%, 95% CI: -3.63% to -3.34%). Similarly, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) demonstrated a reduction from 31,445.76 per 100 000 to 30,557.45 per 100 000 (AAPC=-0.10%, 95% CI: -0.14% to -0.06%), while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) experienced a substantial drop from 20.09 per 100 000 to 1.91 per 100 000 (AAPC=-7.42%, 95% CI: -7.78% to -7.07%). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) also saw a considerable decrease from 719.42 per 100 000 to 76.22 per 100 000 (AAPC=-7.00%, 95% CI: -7.18% to -6.81%). The disease burden was found to be greater in males than in females. The primary attributable risk factors were identified as smoking and alcohol consumption, which were associated with 28.0% and 18.4% of mortality risk, and 28.0% and 18.8% of DALYs, respectively. Projections from the Norpred model suggest that the downward trends in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR are expected to continue from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion China has achieved a notable reduction in the burden of tuberculosis. However, a higher burden persists in the male population, and smoking and alcohol consumption remain the principal modifiable risk factors. To further mitigate the disease burden of tuberculosis, it is imperative to refine prevention and control strategies and implement more targeted interventions for high

Key words: Tuberculosis, Disease burden, Trend analysis, Risk factors, Trend prediction

中图分类号:

R183.3

李鸿云, 钱磊, 李爽, 宜诗焙, 王永斌, 高然朋. 1990—2021年中国结核病疾病负担动态变化、危险因素及未来趋势预测[J]. 华南预防医学, 2026, 52(5): 500-505.

Li Hongyun, Qian Lei, Li Shuang, Yi Shibei, Wang Yongbin, Gao Ranpeng. Temporal trends, risk factors, and future projections of tuberculosis disease burden in China, 1990-2021[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2026, 52(5): 500-505.

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1990—2021年中国结核病疾病负担动态变化、危险因素及未来趋势预测

Temporal trends, risk factors, and future projections of tuberculosis disease burden in China, 1990-2021

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