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Application of moving epidemic method to determine the epidemic intensity of hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China
- LONG Yifang, ZHANG Yingtao, YANG Fen
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2025, 51(5):
533-537.
doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.0533
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Abstract
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Objective To establish epidemic threshold and to classify the epidemic intensity for hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province by using Moving Epidemic Method(MEM). Methods The weekly incidence data of HFMD in Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2020 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The MEM model was used to calculate the epidemic intensity thresholds for each year. Considering the distinct epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Guangdong Province, which has two epidemic peaks in summer and autumn, a segmentation strategy was adopted to divide the epidemic season into two parts and calculate the intensity thresholds separately. The application effect of this method was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Results For the spring-summer epidemic season of HFMD in Guangdong Province, the lowest pre-epidemic threshold was in 2014 (5.60/100 000), and the highest was in 2017 (6.04/100 000). The lowest value of moderate, high, and very high epidemic thresholds were all in 2014 (15.36/100 000, 19.72/100 000, and 22.02/100 000, respectively). The highest value of moderate epidemic threshold was in 2018 (16.66/100 000), and the highest value of high and very high epidemic thresholds were both in 2013 (22.74/100 000 and 26.39/100 000, respectively). For the autumn-winter epidemic season, the pre-epidemic threshold was 3.22/100 000. The lowest value of moderate, high, and very high epidemic thresholds were in 2017/2018 (8.75/100 000, 12.82/100 000, and 15.18/100 000, respectively), and the highest were in 2016/2017 (9.96/100 000, 17.59/100 000, and 22.63/100 000, respectively). Except for the autumn-winter season of 2015/2016, the very high epidemic threshold in the spring-summer season was higher than that in the autumn-winter season in other years. Model validation results showed that sensitivity and specificity were both above 80%, except for 2014/2015. Conclusion For HFMD in Guangdong Province, which exhibits a bimodal epidemic pattern within one epidemic season, the epidemic intensity thresholds for different epidemic seasons can be determined separately by segmenting the epidemic seasons and applying the MEM model.