2018—2023年淄博市丙型肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.0164

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2018—2023年淄博市丙型病毒性肝炎（丙肝）的流行特征,同时探讨淄博市乡镇（街道）层面丙肝聚集性分布情况,为丙肝防控工作提供科学依据。方法收集2018—2023年淄博市丙肝病例报告数据,采用描述性流行病学方法分析其三间分布特征,并进行空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析。结果 2018—2023年淄博市累计报告1 130例丙肝病例,年平均报告发病率为4.28/10万。男女比为1.32∶1,农民、家务及待业人员、离退休人员合计占78.94%。空间自相关分析显示,2018—2020年和2023年淄博市Moran's I值分别为0.203、0.205、0.210和0.115（P<0.05或P<0.01）,热点聚集区域分布在淄川区、桓台县、沂源县、临淄区、博山区和周村区所辖乡镇（街道）。时空聚集性分析结果显示,2018—2023年均有1~2个时空聚集区域,聚集时间各有不同,2022和2023年主要聚集区域类似,丙肝高发的地区主要集中在淄川区、桓台县和沂源县。结论淄博市的丙型肝炎发病率在特定人群和时空上有明显的聚集现象。需特别关注男性、中老年人、农村居民以及淄川区、桓台县、沂源县及周边地区丙肝疫情情况。

关键词: 丙型病毒性肝炎, 流行特征, 空间自相关, 时空聚集性

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of hepatitis C in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023 and explore the distribution of hepatitis C clusters at the township (street) level in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis C. Methods Data on reported cases of hepatitis C in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, spatial, and demographic characteristics. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scanning analysis were also conducted. Results A total of 1 130 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 4.28 per 100 000. The male-to-female ratio was 1.32∶1, and farmers, household workers, unemployed individuals, and retirees accounted for a total of 78.94% of cases. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant clustering with Moran's I values from 2018 to 2020 and 2023 being 0.203, 0.205, 0.210, and 0.115 (P<0.05 or P<0.01). Hot spots were identified in townships (streets) within Zichuan District, Huantai County, Yiyuan County, Linzi District, Boshan District, and Zhoucun District. The results of spatiotemporal aggregation analysis showed that from 2018 to 2023, there were 1 to 2 spatiotemporal aggregation regions with different aggregation times. In 2022 and 2023, the main aggregation regions were similar, and the regions with high incidence of hepatitis C were mainly concentrated in Zichuan District, Huantai County, and Yiyuan County. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C in Zibo City shows clear clustering within specific populations and at particular times and locations. It is important to pay special attention to males, middle-aged and elderly individuals, rural residents, as well as the hepatitis C epidemic situation in Zichuan District, Huantai County, Yiyuan County, and surrounding regions.

Key words: Hepatitis C, Epidemic characteristics, Spatial autocorrelation, Spatiotemporal cluster

中图分类号:

R183.9

张斯娜, 巩翠华, 边文建, 韩美辰. 2018—2023年淄博市丙型肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2025, 51(2): 164-168.

ZHANG Sina, GONG Cuihua, BIAN Wenjian, HAN Meichen. Analysis of the epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis C in Zibo City, 2018-2023[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025, 51(2): 164-168.

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