有效温度对三种新冠毒株续发率的影响

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.0800

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探讨有效温度对新型冠状病毒毒株续发率的影响。方法采用回顾性队列研究方法,以2020—2022年广州和珠海发生的Wild-type、Delta和Omicron新型冠状病毒感染疫情中续发病例和密切接触者为研究对象。收集并计算续发病例在发病前1~14 d有效温度（effective temperature,ET）的滑动平均（Moving Average,MA）值,使用广义线性混合模型评估Wild-type和Delta队列续发病例发病前1~14滑动平均天（1~14 MA天）和Omicron队列续发病例发病前1~8 MA天的有效温度与每日续发率（daily secondary attack rate,DSAR）的关系。结果本共纳入续发病例459例、密切接触者25 760名。Wild-type、Delta和Omicron队列有效温度的MA值均数分别为（6.96±1.13）℃、（25.33±0.25）℃和（26.10±0.38）℃,每日续发率的平均值分别为（6.64±1.21）%、（1.08±0.34）%和（0.82±0.39）%。在Delta队列续发病例发病前的1~7 MA天,ET与DSAR呈负相关关系,ET每升高1 ℃,DSAR减少0.326%（95% CI：0.174%~0.479%,P<0.001）。但在Wild-type和Omicron队列中,ET与DSAR呈正相关关系。在Wild-type队列续发病例发病前的6 MA天,ET每升高1 ℃,DSAR增加0.090%（95% CI：0.038%~0.142%,P=0.001）;在Omicron队列续发病例发病前的7 MA天,ET每升高1 ℃,DSAR增加0.087%（95% CI：0.024%~0.150%,P=0.009）。结论有效温度升高可能降低Delta队列的续发率,增加Wild-type和Omicron队列的续发率。

中图分类号:

R563.1

乔佳, 丁浩, 王茂, 胡前胜. 有效温度对三种新冠毒株续发率的影响[J]. 华南预防医学, 2025, 51(7): 800-805.

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