关键词: 心脑血管疾病, 死亡, Joinpoint回归模型, 年龄-时期-队列模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the mortality trends of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CCVDs) in Baiyin City from 2010 to 2024 and to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on CCVDs mortality. Methods Based on mortality data for CCVDs from Baiyin City, Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to examine the trends in crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and the proportion of deaths attributable to CCVDs. An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was utilized to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects on the crude mortality rate of CCVDs. Results From 2010 to 2024, the overall trends in both the crude and age-standardized mortality rates for CCVDs in the total population of Baiyin City showed no statistically significant changes (both P>0.05). However, the proportional mortality of CCVDs exhibited a significant upward trend (AAPC: 1.12%, 95% CI: 0.57%-1.66%, P<0.01). The age effect indicated that the crude mortality rate increased with advancing age, was higher in males than in females, and accelerated after the age of 65. The period effect revealed that, relative to the 2015-2019 period (RR=1), the mortality risk was highest during the 2010-2014 period (RR for the total population: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.15-1.66). The cohort effect demonstrated a general decreasing trend in mortality risk for more recent birth cohorts, a decline that was particularly pronounced among females (RR for the 1975 birth cohort: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.20-1.03). Conclusion Over the period of 2010-2024, the mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Baiyin City has stabilized. Nevertheless, the proportion of deaths due to CCVDs is on a significant rise. The analysis from the Age-Period-Cohort model suggests that CCVDs warrant continued and focused public health attention in the future.

Key words: Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, Mortality, Joinpoint regression model, Age-period-cohort model