广州市和兴宁市热浪对人群发病住院的短期效应研究

doi:10.13217/j.scjpm.2015.0512

华南预防医学 ›› 2015, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 512-516.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2015.0512

广州市和兴宁市热浪对人群发病住院的短期效应研究

刘苑婷¹，胡梦珏²，曾韦霖²，杨玉¹，林华亮²，刘涛²，肖建鹏²，李杏²，马文军²，欧阳玉林¹

1. 广州市番禺中心医院；广东广州 510140；2.广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院

出版日期:2015-12-20 发布日期:2016-02-26
通讯作者: 欧阳玉林马文军 E-mail:ouyangyulin133@163.com
作者简介:刘苑婷（1985—），女，硕士研究生，医师，研究方向：环境流行病学；胡梦珏（1988—），女，硕士研究生，医师，研究方向：环境与健康；刘苑婷和胡梦珏为共同第一作者
基金资助:
广东省自然科学基金项目；广东省医学科研项目

Short-term effect of heat wave on daily hospital admission in Guangzhou and Xingning

LIU Yuan ting¹, HU Meng jue², ZENG Wei lin², YANG Yu¹, LIN Hua liang², LIU Tao², XIAO Jian peng², LI Xing², MA Wen jun², OUYANG Yu lin¹

1.Guangzhou Panyu Central Hospital, Guangzhou 510140, China;2 Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Online:2015-12-20 Published:2016-02-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的评估热浪对广州市和兴宁市2个城市居民发病住院的影响及确定其脆弱人群。方法收集2006—2011年广州、兴宁各1家综合性医院的逐日住院和逐日气象数据，利用分布滞后模型分析不同滞后期高温热浪对人群发病住院的累积效应大小，同时进一步分析热浪对不同疾病、年龄、性别人群发病住院影响。结果2006—2011年广州市和兴宁市热浪的温度阈值分别为30.8和30.9 ℃。兴宁市热浪发生天数总和、热浪强度（指热浪期间日均气温）以及热浪持续平均天数均比广州市高。2个地区的热浪均发生在6—9月。广州市和兴宁市2市热浪对人群发病住院的效应较为短暂，在滞后0 d时对人群发病住院的效应值最大，RR值分别为1.045（95%CI：1.005~1.165）、1.165（95%CI：1.142~1.288）。2市热浪在滞后0~1 d对人群发病住院的累积效应最大，住院人数分别增加2.6%（95%CI：1.4%～3.8%）和4.5%（95%CI：2.0%～6.0%）。与65岁及以下人群、循环系统疾病患者及男性相比，兴宁市热浪对75岁及以上人群（CER=5.7%）、呼吸系统疾病患者（CER=4.6%）以及女性（CER=4.7%）发病住院的影响较大。结论广州和兴宁市热浪均会增加人群的发病住院风险；患有循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病的人群、65岁以上的老年人、女性是热浪的脆弱人群。

Abstract: ObjectiveTo assess the impact of heat waves on the incidence of hospitalization of urban residents in Guangzhou and Xingning and identify the vulnerable population. MethodsData of daily meteorologic record and hospital admission during 2006 to 2011 were collected from two hospitals of the two cities. Distributed lag model was applied to estimate cumulative effects of heat waves on the incidence of hospitalization and meanwhile analyze the effect of heat waves on the age, sex, and disease category.Results During 2006-2011, the temperature thresholds of heat waves in cities of Guangzhou and Xingning were 30.8 and 30.9 ℃, respectively. The total number of heat wave days, intensity of heat waves (mean daily temperatures during heat waves), and average number of days for continuous heat waves in Xingning were higher than those in Guangzhou. Heat waves occurred from June to September in both cities. The effect of the heat wave on hospitalization in the two cities was relatively short and was the greatest at lag-0 day (RR: 1.045, 95%CI: 1.005-1.165 in Guangzhou; RR: 1.165, 95%CI: 1.142-1.288 in Xingning). The cumulative effects of heat waves on hospitalization were largest at a lag of 0-1 day; the number of inpatients increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.8%) in Guangzhou and 4.5% (95% CI: 2.0%-6.0%) in Xingning. Compared with people aged 65 years or below, patients with circulatory system diseases, and male, greater effects were observed in those with respiratory diseases (CER: 4.6%）, aged 75 years and older (CER:5.7%), and female（CER: 4.7%）in Xingning. ConclusionThe heat wave increased the risk of hospital admissions in Guangzhou and Xingning. Respiratory diseases, people aged 65 and over, and women are vulnerable to the heat waves.

中图分类号:

R122.2

刘苑婷，胡梦珏，曾韦霖，杨玉，林华亮，刘涛，肖建鹏，李杏，马文军，欧阳玉林. 广州市和兴宁市热浪对人群发病住院的短期效应研究[J]. 华南预防医学, 2015, 41(6): 512-516.

LIU Yuan ting, HU Meng jue , ZENG Wei lin , YANG Yu, LIN Hua liang , LIU Tao , XIAO Jian peng , LI Xing , MA Wen jun , OUYANG Yu lin. Short-term effect of heat wave on daily hospital admission in Guangzhou and Xingning[J]. S China J Prev Med, 2015, 41(6): 512-516.

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广州市和兴宁市热浪对人群发病住院的短期效应研究

Short-term effect of heat wave on daily hospital admission in Guangzhou and Xingning

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