华南预防医学 ›› 2017, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 101-105.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2017.0101

• 论著 •    下一篇

重庆市恶性肿瘤发病趋势及影响因素定量分析

丁贤彬,吕晓燕,毛德强,焦艳,唐文革   

  1. 重庆市疾病预防控制中心,重庆 400042
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-30 修回日期:2016-09-30 出版日期:2017-05-08 发布日期:2017-05-19
  • 通讯作者: 吕晓燕 E-mail:vivian963852@163.com
  • 作者简介:丁贤彬(1970—),男,硕士研究生,主任医师,从事疾病预防与控制工作
  • 基金资助:
    重庆市卫生局面上科研项目(2011-2-312)

Quantitative analysis of incidence trend of malignant tumor and its influencing factors in Chongqing Municipality

DING Xian-bin, LV Xiao-yan, MAO De-qiang, JIAO Yan, TANG Wen-ge   

  1. Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Chongqing 400042,China
  • Received:2016-09-30 Revised:2016-09-30 Online:2017-05-08 Published:2017-05-19

摘要: 目的分析2006-2015年重庆市恶性肿瘤发病趋势变化,并对影响因素进行定量分析,为开展重庆市恶性肿瘤防治提供依据。方法收集整理2006—2015年重庆市肿瘤登记点报告的新发肿瘤病例,统计分析发病率、中国人口标准化发病率、年度变化百分比,趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。采用恶性肿瘤发病率差别分解法计算出人口因素和非人口因素对恶性肿瘤发病的贡献率。结果重庆市恶性肿瘤发病率与中国人口标准化发病率分别由2006年的148.08/10万与131.44/10万 上升至2015年的269.39/10万 与177.13/10万,APC分别为5.65%与2.43%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05或P<0.01),各年份男性发病率均高于女性。重庆市恶性肿瘤发病率上升人口因素的贡献率与非人口因素的贡献率分别为66.32%与33.68%。男性、女性与农村均是人口因素贡献率(80.76%、51.06%、114.68%)高于非人口因素贡献率(19.24%、48.94%、-14.68%),而城市的非人口因素贡献率(64.29%)高于人口因素贡献率(35.71%)。结论重庆市恶性肿瘤发病率呈上升的趋势,恶性肿瘤发病率的上升受人口因素与非人口因素协同作用。

Abstract: ObjectiveTo analyze changes of the incidence trend of malignant tumor in Chongqing Municipality from 2006 to 2015 and the influencing factors, so as to provide the evidence for prevention and control of malignant tumor.MethodsCancer cases newly reported from 2006 to 2015 were collected from the cancer registries in Chongqing. The data were analyzed to calculate the incidence, Chinese age-standardized incidence rate, and percentage of annual changes of malignant tumor. The incidence trend of malignant tumor was identified by curve estimated exponential distribution regression model. The contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors to different incidence trend of malignant tumor was analyzed by the difference decomposing of incidence.ResultsThe incidence rate and Chinese age-standardized rates of malignant tumor increased from 148.08/105 and 131.44/105 in 2006 to 269.39/105 and 177.13/105 in 2015, and the APC was 5.65% and 2.43%, respectively (P<0.05 or P<0.01). The incidence of malignant tumor was higher in males than that in females. The contribution rates due to demographic and non-demographic factors for the increased incidence of malignant tumor were 66.32% and 33.68%, respectively. The contribution rates of demographic factor were higher in male, female, and rural area (80.76%, 51.06%, 114.68%) than those of non-demographic factor (19.24%, 48.94%, -14.68%). But in urban area, the contribution rate of non-demographic factor (64.29%) was higher than that of demographic factor (35.71%).ConclusionThe incidence of malignant tumor presented a rising trend in Chongqing, and the rising trend was synergistically affected by the demographic and non-demographic factors.

中图分类号: 

  • R195.4