华南预防医学 ›› 2018, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 406-410.doi: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2018.0406

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2017年佛山市大气PM2.5污染对呼吸系统疾病门诊量影响的时间序列分析

关绮华,梁自勉,莫莹莹   

  1. 佛山市疾病预防控制中心,广东 佛山 528000
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-18 修回日期:2018-06-18 出版日期:2018-12-05 发布日期:2019-01-23
  • 作者简介:关绮华(1982—),女,大学本科,主管医师,主要从事学校卫生、传染病预防控制和流行病学研究工作

Time series study of relationship between ambient PM2.5 and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Foshan City, 2017

GUAN Qi-hua,LIANG Zi-mian,MO Ying-ying   

  1. Foshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Foshan 528000,China
  • Received:2018-06-18 Revised:2018-06-18 Online:2018-12-05 Published:2019-01-23

摘要: 目的研究佛山市大气PM2.5 日均浓度对综合医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日均门诊量的影响。方法收集2017 年大气PM2.5、 PM10、 SO2、 NO2、 CO 、 O3-1h、 O3-8h 7 个指标污染物资料、气象资料以及佛山市2 家综合医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日均门诊量资料,采用广义相加模型的时间序列分析,控制长期趋势、星期几效应和气象等影响因素后,研究佛山市大气PM2.5 与呼吸系统疾病日均门诊量的关系。结果2017 年佛山市大气污染物污染整体呈优良水平,主要污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO、O3-1h、O3-8h 均符合国家《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)二级或以上标准。大气PM2.5 日均浓度为33.2 μg/m3,符合国家二级标准,全年超标天数为9 d,2 家医院全年呼吸系统疾病门诊量为261 158 人次,平均715.50 人次/ d。Spearman 相关分析提示呼吸系统疾病日均门诊量与SO2、NO2、PM10 呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.19、0.33 和0.20,均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。广义相加模型分析结果显示,大气PM2.5 日均浓度与呼吸系统疾病日均门诊量呈正相关关系,当天(lag0)PM2.5 日均浓度对呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响最大(ER=2.744,95% CI:0.701~4.827),PM2.5 每增加10 μg/m3,每日呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加2.744%。在多污染物模型分析中,引入O3-1h(ER=3.425,95% CI:1.278~ 5.617)、O3-8h(ER=4.611,95% CI:2.373~6.899)时与PM2.5 联合作用对呼吸系统疾病门诊量相关性明显升高。结论佛山市大气PM2.5 污染与呼吸系统疾病门诊量呈正相关关系。

Abstract: Objective To analyze the impact of ambient PM2.5 on hospital outpatient visits for respi?ratory diseases. Methods Data on ambient PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,CO,O3-1h and O3-8h in 2017 were collected from Foshan Meteorological Bureau and Foshan Environmental Protection Bureau. Data on daily hospital outpatient visits were collected from two hospitals in Foshan. A time?series analysis using a gener?alized additive model(GAM)was applied to assess the association between ambient PM2.5 concentration and hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases after adjustment for long ?term trend,day ?of ?week, meteorological factors and other air pollutants. Results Air pollution in Foshan City showed excellent lev?el as a whole in 2017. The main pollutants of PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,CO,O3-1h,and O3-8h met the sec?ond or higher standards of the National Environmental Air Quality Standard(GB 3095-2012). The aver?age PM2.5 concentration in Foshan in 2017 was 33.2 μg/ m3,meeting the national second ?level standard. The numbers of days exceeding the standard were 9 days all the year round. The total outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in the two hospitals were 261 158 with average 715.50 visits per day. The hospital dai?ly average outpatient visits for respiratory diseases were positively correlated with the air pollutants of SO2, NO2,and PM10 by the Spearman correlation analysis(R:0.19,0.33,0.20;P<0.05 for all). The GAM analysis showed that the daily average concentration of ambient PM2.5 was positively correlated with the hos?pital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. The effect of ambient PM2.5 was the largest on lag 0 day(ER=2.744;95% CI:0.701,4.827). For every 10 μg/m3 increment of ambient PM2.5,the daily outpatient vis?its for respiratory diseases increased by 2.744%。 In the analysis of multi-pollutant model,when introduc?ing O3-1h(ER=3.425;95% CI:1.278,5.617)and O3-8h(ER=4.611;95% CI:2.373,6.899),their combined effect with PM2.5 made the correlation between PM2.5 and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases increased significantly. Conclusion The ambient PM2.5 concentration was positively associated with hospi?tal outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Foshan City.

中图分类号: 

  • R122.7