移动流行区间法在广东省手足口病流行强度评价中的应用

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2025.0533

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的应用移动流行区间法（moving epidemic method,MEM）建立广东省手足口病流行强度阈值,并进行强度分级。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集广东省2012—2020年手足口病周报告发病率资料,应用MEM模型分析各年份的流行强度阈值,为同时兼顾广东省手足口病存在夏季和秋季2个流行高峰的不同流行特点,采取分割策略拆分成2个流行季节后分别计算各自强度阈值,利用灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值等评价该方法的应用效果。结果广东省手足口病春夏流行季,流行前阈值最低的为2014年（5.60/10万）,最高为2017年（6.04/10万）,中流行阈值、高流行阈值和极高流行阈值最低的均为2014年（分别为15.36/10万、19.72/10万、22.02/10万）,中流行阈值最高为2018年（16.66/10万）,高流行阈值和极高流行阈值最高均为2013年（分别为22.74/10万、26.39/10万）。秋冬流行季流行前阈值均为3.22/10万,中流行阈值、高流行阈值和极高流行阈值最低的均为2017/2018年（分别为8.75/10万、12.82/10万、15.18/10万）,最高均为2016/2017年（分别为9.96/10万、17.59/10万、22.63/10万）。除2015/2016年秋冬季流行季的极高流行阈值高于春夏季外,其余各年份春夏季流行季的极高流行阈值均高于秋冬季流行季。模型验证结果表明除2014/2015年外,灵敏度及特异度均高于80%。结论对于在1个流行季内呈现双峰流行特征的广东省手足口病,可通过拆分流行季使用MEM模型的方法分别确定不同流行季的流行强度阈值。

关键词: 手足口病, 移动流行区间法, 流行阈值, 流行强度

Abstract: Objective To establish epidemic threshold and to classify the epidemic intensity for hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province by using Moving Epidemic Method(MEM). Methods The weekly incidence data of HFMD in Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2020 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The MEM model was used to calculate the epidemic intensity thresholds for each year. Considering the distinct epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Guangdong Province, which has two epidemic peaks in summer and autumn, a segmentation strategy was adopted to divide the epidemic season into two parts and calculate the intensity thresholds separately. The application effect of this method was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Results For the spring-summer epidemic season of HFMD in Guangdong Province, the lowest pre-epidemic threshold was in 2014 (5.60/100 000), and the highest was in 2017 (6.04/100 000). The lowest value of moderate, high, and very high epidemic thresholds were all in 2014 (15.36/100 000, 19.72/100 000, and 22.02/100 000, respectively). The highest value of moderate epidemic threshold was in 2018 (16.66/100 000), and the highest value of high and very high epidemic thresholds were both in 2013 (22.74/100 000 and 26.39/100 000, respectively). For the autumn-winter epidemic season, the pre-epidemic threshold was 3.22/100 000. The lowest value of moderate, high, and very high epidemic thresholds were in 2017/2018 (8.75/100 000, 12.82/100 000, and 15.18/100 000, respectively), and the highest were in 2016/2017 (9.96/100 000, 17.59/100 000, and 22.63/100 000, respectively). Except for the autumn-winter season of 2015/2016, the very high epidemic threshold in the spring-summer season was higher than that in the autumn-winter season in other years. Model validation results showed that sensitivity and specificity were both above 80%, except for 2014/2015. Conclusion For HFMD in Guangdong Province, which exhibits a bimodal epidemic pattern within one epidemic season, the epidemic intensity thresholds for different epidemic seasons can be determined separately by segmenting the epidemic seasons and applying the MEM model.

Key words: Hand-foot-mouth disease, Moving epidemic method, Epidemic threshold, Incidence intensity

中图分类号:

R183.4

龙遗芳, 张应涛, 杨芬. 移动流行区间法在广东省手足口病流行强度评价中的应用[J]. 华南预防医学, 2025, 51(5): 533-537.

LONG Yifang, ZHANG Yingtao, YANG Fen. Application of moving epidemic method to determine the epidemic intensity of hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2025, 51(5): 533-537.

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