1990—2021年中国肠梗阻疾病负担分析及趋势预测

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2026.0485

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析1990—2021年中国肠梗阻疾病负担情况,研究其变化趋势,并对2022—2035年未来疾病负担进行预测。方法整理分析GBD 2021数据库中1990—2021年中国肠梗阻的发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）等疾病负担指标,通过Joinpoint回归模型分析疾病负担变化趋势,通过ARIMA模型预测2022—2035年的疾病负担情况。结果与1990年相比,2021年中国肠梗阻发病数增长37.75%,发病率增长13.90%,患病数增长34.97%,患病率增长11.60%;标化发病率降低9.70%,标化患病率降低9.96%;死亡数、死亡率及标化死亡率分别降低21.17%、34.82%及64.98%;DALYs、DALYs率及标化DALYs率分别降低64.75%、70.85%及73.93%。与全球及不同SDI地区比较,中国肠梗阻标化发病率与患病率处于全球较高水平,但标化死亡率、DALYs率处于全球最低水平。JPR模型显示1990—2021年中国肠梗阻标化发病率、标化患病率、标化死亡率及标化DALYs率均呈显著下降趋势,AAPC分别为-0.32%、-0.34%、-3.37%、-4.22%（均P<0.001）。男性疾病负担高于女性,≥70岁人群疾病负担较重。ARIMA模型预测显示2022—2035年中国肠梗阻发病数、患病数、发病率及患病率将呈上升趋势。结论 1990—2021年中国肠梗阻的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。男性及≥70岁人群为高危人群。预测2022—2035年中国肠梗阻发病、患病的疾病负担呈上升趋势。应制定针对性的医疗政策并采取必要的干预措施,尤其是加强对高危人群的预防和干预。

关键词: 肠梗阻, 疾病负担, 发病预测, Joinpoint回归模型, 时间序列分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the disease burden of intestinal obstruction in China from 1990 to 2021, investigate its changing trends, and forecast the future disease burden for the period of 2022-2035. Methods Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of intestinal obstruction in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted and analyzed from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in the disease burden, while the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was utilized to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Results In comparison to 1990, the year 2021 witnessed a 37.75% increase in the number of incident cases of intestinal obstruction in China, with a corresponding 13.90% rise in the incidence rate. The number of prevalent cases increased by 34.97%, and the prevalence rate rose by 11.60%. Conversely, the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate decreased by 9.70% and 9.96%, respectively. The number of deaths, mortality rate, and age-standardized mortality rate declined by 21.17%, 34.82%, and 64.98%, respectively. Furthermore, DALYs, the DALY rate, and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased by 64.75%, 70.85%, and 73.93%, respectively. When benchmarked against global and different Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, China's age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of intestinal obstruction were at a comparatively high global level. However, its age-standardized mortality and DALY rates were among the lowest globally. The Joinpoint regression model indicated a significant decreasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALY rate for intestinal obstruction in China from 1990 to 2021, with respective Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPCs) of -0.32%, -0.34%, -3.37%, and -4.22% (all P<0.001). The disease burden was higher in males than in females, and was particularly severe in the population aged 70 years and older. The ARIMA model forecasts an upward trend in the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, incidence rate, and prevalence rate of intestinal obstruction in China from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion The disease burden of intestinal obstruction in China remained at a high level between 1990 and 2021. Males and individuals aged 70 years and older represent high-risk populations. The burden of incident and prevalent cases of intestinal obstruction is projected to increase from 2022 to 2035. It is imperative to formulate targeted medical policies and implement necessary interventions, with a particular focus on enhancing prevention and intervention strategies for high-risk groups.

Key words: Intestinal obstruction, Disease burden, Incidence prediction, Joinpoint regression model, Time series analysis

中图分类号:

R195.4

李坤, 李洪涛, 范瑞芳, 赵丽君. 1990—2021年中国肠梗阻疾病负担分析及趋势预测[J]. 华南预防医学, 2026, 52(5): 485-494.

Li Kun, Li Hongtao, Fan Ruifang, Zhao Lijun. Analysis of the disease burden and trend prediction of intestinal obstruction in China, 1990-2021[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2026, 52(5): 485-494.

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