2014—2018年天津市气温对儿童手足口病发病的短期效应研究

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2021.1366

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the short-term effect of air temperature on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease （HFMD） in children in Tianjin from 2014 to 2018. Methods By collecting the data of daily incidence of HFMD, meteorological and environmental pollution factors, and using the distribution lag nonlinear model of time series, the model was screened on the basis of adjusting the potential confounding factors, and the relative risk （RR） was used as the index to estimate the impact of temperature on the incidence of HFMD in children. Results There were 70 027 children aged 0-15 years old with HFMD, including 41 561 boys and 28 466 girls. The sex ratio was 1.46：1. The overall cumulative response curve between daily mean temperature and incidence of HFMD within 16 days of lag time showed an approximate “m” shape, reaching a peak at 25.6 ℃, with RR=1.45 （95% CI： 1.21-1.73）. The temperature at 26.1 ℃ （RR=1.60, 95% CI： 1.26-2.03） in the girl group and 25.9 ℃ （RR=1.60, 95% CI： 1.28-1.99） in the scattered group were more associated with HFMD. When the lag time was 16 days, extreme low temperature environment（-6.3 ℃） had a certain protective effect on HFMD （RR=0.49, 95% CI： 0.28-0.87）, and high temperature environment （24.7 ℃, 31.8 ℃） had a certain risk effect on HFMD （all RR>1, P<0.05）. Conclusion The correlation between daily mean temperature and HFMD is non-linear, and the attention should be paid to girls and scattered children.

Key words: Hand-foot-mouth disease, Meteorological factor, Air temperature, Distribution lag nonlinear model

CLC Number:

R183.4

JI Xue-yue, FEI Chun-nan, SONG Jia, LIU Jun, LIU He. Short-term effect of air temperature on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in children in Tianjin, 2014-2018[J].South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2021, 47(11): 1366-1370.

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Short-term effect of air temperature on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in children in Tianjin, 2014-2018

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