2011—2023年新疆昌吉州人间布鲁氏菌病流行趋势及时空分布特征分析

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2026.0165

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2011—2023年新疆维吾尔自治区昌吉回族自治州（昌吉州）人间布鲁氏菌病（布病）的流行病学特征、发病率变化趋势及时空聚集特征,为昌吉州布病防控提供科学依据。方法收集2011—2023年昌吉州人间布病报告病例数据,通过描述性流行病学方法分析三间分布特征,采用Joinpoint回归分析发病率长期变化趋势,采用空间自相关分析及时空扫描分析探索人间布病时空聚集性。结果 2011—2023年昌吉州累计报告人间布病8 291例,年均发病率45.71/10万,发病高峰在3—8月。2011—2023年昌吉州人间布病发病率总体呈上升趋势（AAPC=32.52%,95% CI：27.56%~42.45%）,其中2011—2015年发病率呈上升趋势（APC=151.88%,95% CI：123.90%~214.47%）,2015—2020年呈下降趋势（APC=-23.11%,95% CI：-32.17%~-18.18%）,2020—2023年再次呈上升趋势（APC=39.44%,95% CI：17.35%~83.62%）。男性发病率高于女性（P<0.01）,病例主要分布于40~<60岁年组（50.79%）,职业以农民（81.39%）和牧民（5.48%）为主。空间分布特征显示,年均发病率前3位的县（市）是奇台县（66.00/10万）,木垒哈萨克自治县（63.61/10万）,玛纳斯县（58.80/10万）。空间自相关分析结果显示,2012—2023年的Moran's I值均大于0（均P<0.05）,病例存在空间聚集性;2011—2016年“高-高”聚集区主要分布于玛纳斯县与呼图壁县,2017—2023年“高-高”聚集区主要分布于奇台县和木垒哈萨克自治县。2011—2023年“高-低”聚集区主要分布于玛纳斯县和昌吉市,“低-高”聚集区主要分布于玛纳斯县、呼图壁县和木垒哈萨克自治县;“低-低”聚集区主要聚集于玛纳斯县和昌吉市。时空扫描显示,一类聚集区以呼图壁县的雀尔沟镇为聚集中心;二类聚集-1和二类聚集-2分别以奇台县的半截沟镇和老奇台镇为聚集中心。结论昌吉州人间布病发病率呈上升趋势,存在明显的时空聚集性,应密切关注人畜间布病流行趋势及变化情况,及时调整防控策略,加强对布病高发地区及热点地区病例的监测。

关键词: 布鲁氏菌病, 流行特征, 空间自相关, 时空聚集性

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics, incidence trends, and spatiotemporal clustering of human brucellosis in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture (hereafter "Changji Prefecture"), Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, from 2011 to 2023, in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods Case data for human brucellosis reported in Changji Prefecture from 2011 to 2023 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to analyze distribution by time, place, and person. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to assess long-term incidence trends. Spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scan statistics were applied to explore the spatiotemporal clustering of human brucellosis. Results A total of 8 291 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Changji Prefecture from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence of 45.71 per 100 000 population. Peak incidence occurred between March and August. The overall incidence rate demonstrated an upward trend from 2011 to 2023 (AAPC=32.52%, 95% CI: 27.56%-42.45%). Specifically, the incidence rate increased from 2011 to 2015 (APC=151.88%, 95% CI: 123.90%-214.47%), showed a decreasing trend from 2015 to 2020 (APC=-23.11%, 95% CI: -32.17%- -18.18%), and reverted to an upward trend from 2020 to 2023 (APC = 39.44%, 95% CI: 17.35%-83.62%). The incidence rate in males was higher than in females (P<0.01). Cases were concentrated in the 40-<60 age group (50.79%), with primary occupations being farmers (81.39%) and herdsmen (5.48%). Analysis of spatial distribution revealed that the three counties (cities) with the highest average annual incidence rates were Qitai County (66.00/100 000), Mulei Kazakh Autonomous County (63.61/100 000), and Manas County (58.80/100 000). Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that Moran's I values were greater than 0 for each year from 2012 to 2023 (all P<0.05), confirming the existence of spatial clustering. High-High (H-H) clusters were primarily located in Manas and Hutubi counties from 2011 to 2016, shifting to Qitai and Mulei Kazak Autonomous counties from 2017 to 2023. High-Low (H-L) clusters were mainly observed in Manas County and Changji City, Low-High (L-H) clusters in Manas, Hutubi, and Mulei Kazak Autonomous counties, and Low-Low (L-L) clusters were concentrated in Manas County and Changji City. Spatiotemporal scan statistics identified a primary cluster centered in Que'ergou Town, Hutubi County, and two secondary clusters centered in Banjiegou Town and Laoqitai Town of Qitai County, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of human brucellosis in Changji Prefecture is increasing and exhibits significant spatiotemporal clustering. It is imperative to closely monitor the epidemiological trends of brucellosis in both human and animal populations, adjust prevention and control strategies in a timely manner, and enhance surveillance of cases in high-incidence areas and identified hotspots.

Key words: Brucellosis, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatial autocorrelation, Spatiotemporal cluster

中图分类号:

R183

柯九辰, 吴军, 刘佩佩, 曹雪卉, 阿迪力·司马义, 齐麟, 程侠, 赵江山. 2011—2023年新疆昌吉州人间布鲁氏菌病流行趋势及时空分布特征分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2026, 52(2): 165-170.

Ke Jiuchen, Wu Jun, Liu Peipei, Cao Xuehui, Adili Simayi, Qi Lin, Cheng Xia, Zhao Jiangshan. Epidemiological trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang, 2011-2023[J]. South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2026, 52(2): 165-170.

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