关键词: 肾癌, 疾病负担, 伤残调整寿命年

Abstract: Objective To estimate long-term trends in kidney cancer morbidity, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years rates （DALY rates） in five Asian countries and regions from 1990 to 2019 and the current disease burden of kidney cancer in China in 2019, and to project future trends through 2029. Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 （GBD 2019）, from which burden of disease indicators was obtained for China's mainland, Taiwan of China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, analyzing trends of disease burden from 1990 to 2019. Using ARIMA models, morbidity and mortality trends were projected for China's mainland from 2020 to 2029. Results Among the five Asian countries and regions from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized morbidity, mortality, and DALY rates of China's mainland, Taiwan of China, and South Korea showed an upward trend （EAPC 95% CI > 0）. Taiwan of China had the largest change of growth, followed by China's mainland. In 2019, the DALY rates of kidney cancer in five Asian countries and regions showed an upward trend with the increase in age. The disease burden of male kidney cancer in each country and region was higher than that of females. The DALY rate of kidney cancer caused by three risk factors, high body mass index （BMI）, smoking, and trichloroethylene occupational exposure, was the highest in Taiwan of China. The prediction results of the ARIMA model showed that the morbidity and mortality of kidney cancer in China's mainland would continue to increase from 2020 to 2029. Conclusions Since 1990, the morbidity of kidney cancer has been showing an increasing trend in the five Asian countries and regions. And morbidity and mortality will continue to increase in China's mainland by 2029.

Key words: Kidney cancer, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years