新发突发急性呼吸道传染病跨境传播风险评估指标相关研究进展

doi:10.12183/j.scjpm.2026.1129

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 风险评估是量化新发突发急性呼吸道传染病疫情不确定性的重要工具。本研究系统梳理风险评估相关理论框架的演进路径,围绕可能性、严重性与脆弱性3个维度,归纳评估指标体系的研究进展,并分析跨境传播风险的特殊考量因素。研究发现,评估范式正由静态、单点测度转向动态、网络化分析,由侧重单项技术转向强调系统韧性。然而,指标权重设定的主观性、模型结构的静态局限及对社会行为等非技术因素关注不足,仍制约评估结果的科学性与适用性。未来应加强多源实时数据整合,完善跨境协同预警机制,构建契合新发突发急性呼吸道传染病跨境传播特征的动态风险评估指标体系。

关键词: 呼吸道传染病, 跨境传播, 风险评估, 指标体系

中图分类号:

R183.3

鲁发国, 魏楠, 何继波, 李则颖, 周佳, 李琼芬. 新发突发急性呼吸道传染病跨境传播风险评估指标相关研究进展[J]. 华南预防医学, 2026, 52(10): 1129-1134.

参考文献

[1] Ajumobi O, Davis M, George CM, et al.Improving risk analysis of the environmental drivers of the spillover, emergence/re-emergence and spread of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, Marburg virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the East Africa Region[J]. BMJ Glob Health, 2025, 10(4): e019162.
[2] World Health Organization. Rapid risk assessment of acute public health events[EB/OL]. (2012-01-01)[2026-01-16]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-HSE-GAR-ARO-2012.1.
[3] Gilbert M, Pullano G, Pinotti F, et al.Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: A modelling study[J]. Lancet, 2020, 395(10227): 871-877.
[4] Ravi SJ, Warmbrod KL, Mullen L, et al.The value proposition of the global health security index[J]. BMJ Glob Health, 2020, 5(10): e003648.
[5] Abbey EJ, Khalifa BAA, Oduwole MO, et al.The global health security index is not predictive of coronavirus pandemic responses among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries[J]. PLoS One, 2020, 15(10): e0239398.
[6] Razavi A, Erondu N, Okereke E.The global health security index: What value does it add?[J]. BMJ Glob Health, 2020, 5(4): e002477.
[7] Chang CL, McAleer M. Alternative global health security indexes for risk analysis of COVID-19[J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2020, 17(9): 3161.
[8] World Health Organization. Joint external evaluation tool: International health regulations (2005)-third edition[EB/OL]. (2022-06-23)[2026-01-16]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240051980.
[9] Cheng F, Wang C, Li Y, Wu H.A review and future directions for global public health security assessment tools[J]. China CDC Wkly, 2026, 8(1): 1-7.
[10] World Health Organization. IHR (2005) States Parties self-assessment annual reporting tool, 2nd ed[EB/OL]. (2021-12-09)[2026-01-16]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240040120.
[11] Chen Y, Li X, Zhang Y, et al.Application of an integrated risk matrix and the Borda count method on Lassa fever in assessing the importation risk of EID — 9 African countries, 1996-2023[J]. China CDC Wkly, 2024, 6(46): 1037-1044.
[12] 刘珏, 梁万年, 刘民, 等. 传染病境外输入风险评估指标体系构建研究[J]. 中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志, 2021, 16(5): 465-469.
[13] Kraemer MUG, Yang CH, Gutierrez B, et al.The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China[J]. Science, 2020, 368(6490): 493-497.
[14] Burns J, Movsisyan A, Stratil JM, et al. International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: A rapid review[J]. Cochrane Database Syst Rev, 2021, (3): CD013717.
[15] Du Z, Wang C, Liu C, et al.Systematic review and meta-analyses of superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 infections[J]. Transbound Emerg Dis, 2022, 69(5): e3007-e3017.
[16] van Doremalen N, Bushmaker T, Morris DH, et al. Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1[J]. N Engl J Med, 2020, 382(16): 1564-1567.
[17] Buonanno G, Morawska L, Stabile L.Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications[J]. Environ Int, 2020, 145: 106112.
[18] World Health Organization. Natural ventilation for infection control in health-care settings[EB/OL]. (2009-01-14)[2026-01-16]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241547857.
[19] Zhang Y, Shankar SN, Vass WB, et al.Air change rate and SARS-CoV-2 exposure in hospitals and residences: A meta-analysis[J]. Aerosol Sci Technol, 2024, 58(3): 217-243.
[20] Kaeophet T, Dejchanchaiwong R, Tekasakul P, et al.Ventilation improvement for effective protection of healthcare workers in negative pressure airborne infectious isolation room from viral aerosols[J]. Build Environ, 2024, 259: 111665.
[21] Khatib AN, Carvalho AM, Primavesi R, et al. Navigating the risks of flying during COVID-19: A review for safe air travel[J]. J Travel Med, 2020, 27(8): taaa212.
[22] Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, et al.The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak[J]. Science, 2020, 368(6489): 395-400.
[23] Hoshino K, Maeshiro T, Nishida N, et al.Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 on the Diamond Princess uncovered using viral genome sequence analysis[J]. Gene, 2021, 779: 145496.
[24] Mistry D, Litvinova M, Pastore Y Piontti A, et al. Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling[J]. Nat Commun, 2021, 12(1): 323.
[25] Leung K, Wu JT, Leung GM.Effects of adjusting public health, travel, and social measures during the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination: A modelling study[J]. Lancet Public Health, 2021, 6(9): e674-e682.
[26] Chan EYY, Huang Z, Lam HCY, et al.Health vulnerability index for disaster risk reduction: Application in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region[J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2019, 16(3): 380.
[27] Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, et al.Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: Systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications[J]. Eur J Epidemiol, 2020, 35(12): 1123-1138.
[28] World Health Organization. Pandemic Influenza Severity Assessment (PISA)[EB/OL]. (2025-08-13)[2026-01-16]. https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/surveillance-and-monitoring/pandemic-influenza-severity-assessment.
[29] Ioannidis JPA, Axfors C, Contopoulos-oannidis DG. Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters[J]. Environ Res, 2020, 188: 109890.
[30] Grasselli G, Zangrillo A, Zanella A, et al.Baseline characteristics and outcomes of 1 591 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy[J]. JAMA, 2020, 323(16): 1574-1581.
[31] Bowe B, Xie Y, Xu E, et al.Three-year outcomes of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19[J]. Nat Med, 2024, 30(5): 1354-1367.
[32] Cutler DM, Summers LH.The COVID-19 pandemic and the $16 trillion virus[J]. JAMA, 2020, 324(15): 1495-1496.
[33] Zhu X, Mannar D, Srivastava SS, et al.Cryo-electron microscopy structures of the N501Y SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in complex with ACE2 and 2 potent neutralizing antibodies[J]. PLoS Biol, 2021, 19(4): e3001237.
[34] Starr TN, Greaney AJ, Addetia A, et al.Prospective mapping of viral mutations that escape antibodies used to treat COVID-19[J]. Science, 2021, 371(6531): 850-854.
[35] Ataya F, Alamro A, Alghamdi A, et al.SARS-CoV-2 spike mutations alter structure and energetics to modulate ACE2 binding immune evasion and viral adaptation[J]. Sci Rep, 2025, 15(1): 37546.
[36] Cao Y, Wang J, Jian F, et al.Omicron escapes the majority of existing SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies[J]. Nature, 2022, 602(7898): 657-663.
[37] Moriyama M, Hugentobler WJ, Iwasaki A.Seasonality of respiratory viral infections[J]. Annu Rev Virol, 2020, 7(1): 83-101.
[38] Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, et al.Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 close contacts in Shenzhen, China: A retrospective cohort study[J]. Lancet Infect Dis, 2020, 20(8): 911-919.
[39] Madewell ZJ, Yang Y, Longini IM, et al.Factors associated with household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis[J]. JAMA Netw Open, 2022, 4(8): e2122240.
[40] He X, Lau EHY, Wu P, et al.Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19[J]. Nat Med, 2020, 26(5): 672-675.
[41] Xu X, Wu Y, Kummer AG, et al.Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: A systematic review and meta-analysis[J]. BMC Med, 2023, 21(1): 374.
[42] Song Y, Shim E.Proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission events associated with COVID-19 in South Korea[J]. J Clin Med, 2022, 11(14): 3925.
[43] Meares HD, Jones MP.When a system breaks: Queueing theory model of intensive care bed needs during the COVID-19 pandemic[J]. Med J Aust, 2020, 212(10): 470-471.
[44] Hayashi K, Nishiura H.Time-dependent risk of COVID-19 death with overwhelmed health-care capacity in Japan, 2020-2022[J]. BMC Infect Dis, 2022, 22(1): 933.
[45] Ferrara N, Campobasso CP, Cocozza S, et al.Relationship between COVID-19 mortality, hospital beds, and primary care by Italian regions: A lesson for the future[J]. J Clin Med, 2022, 11(14): 4196.
[46] Keita M, Lucaccioni H, Ilumbulumbu MK, et al.Evaluation of early warning, alert and response system for Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020[J]. Emerg Infect Dis, 2021, 27(12): 2988-2998.
[47] Alhaffar MBA, Abbara A, Almhawish N, et al.The early warning and response systems in Syria: A functionality and alert threshold assessment[J]. IJID Reg, 2025, 14: 100563.
[48] Getchell M, Wulandari S, De Alwis R, et al.Pathogen genomic surveillance status among lower resource settings in Asia[J]. Nat Microbiol, 2024, 9(10): 2738-2747.
[49] Brito AF, Semenova E, Dudas G, et al.Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance[J]. Nat Commun, 2022, 13(1): 7003.
[50] World Health Organization. Guidance and tools for conducting an early action review (EAR): Rapid performance improvement for outbreak detection and response[EB/OL]. (2023-08-31)[2026-01-16]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-WPE-HSP-CER-2023.1.
[51] Nakiire L, Bochner AF, Nabatanzi M, et al.Implementing the 7-1-7 target to improve epidemic preparedness and response in Uganda[J]. BMJ Glob Health, 2025, 10(7): e018207.
[52] Bochner AF, Makumbi I, Aderinola O, et al.Implementation of the 7-1-7 target for detection, notification, and response to public health threats in five countries: A retrospective, observational study[J]. Lancet Glob Health, 2023, 11(6): e871-e879.
[53] Cheng F, Wang C, Li Y, Wu H.A review and future directions for global public health security assessment tools[J]. China CDC Wkly, 2026, 8(1): 1-7.
[54] GB 42301—2022 口岸公共卫生核心能力建设技术规范[S].
[55] Oppenheim B, Gallivan M, Madhav NK, et al.Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: Development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index[J]. BMJ Glob Health, 2019, 4(1): e001157.
[56] Goniewicz K, Khorram-Manesh A, Hertelendy AJ, et al.Current response and management decisions of the European Union to the COVID-19 outbreak: A review[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 12(9): 3838.
[57] Miyano S, Nozaki I, Hachiya M, et al.Regional health security architecture in ASEAN countries: Lessons from regional CDC models and Japan's strategic partnership for ACPHEED development[J]. Glob Health Med, 2026, 8(1): 1-7.